A large Russian bank gave a forecast for the lending market in 2026

According to preliminary estimates by VTB, the retail credit market in Russia has passed the stage of restructuring and is returning to its growth trajectory.

In 2026, the issuance of loans may amount to about 12.7* trillion rubles, which is 32% higher than the planned result for 2025. This is the forecast on the eve of the 16th VTB Investment Forum “RUSSIA CALLING!” voiced by Senior Vice President, Head of the Bank's Retail Business Products Department Alexey Okhorzin.

In 2025, according to VTB, sales of loans to individuals in Russia will amount to less than 10 trillion rubles – a quarter lower than in 2024. More than 60% of them will be mortgages and car loans: 4.2 trillion and 1.8 trillion rubles, respectively. Cash loans will account for about 3.6 trillion rubles. The volume of the retail loan portfolio on the market at the end of the year will increase by 4%, approaching 40.9 trillion. The main driver of its growth will be car loans, the portfolio of which will increase by 18%.

In 2026, VTB experts predict positive dynamics of lending on the market in most areas of retail: by about a quarter for mortgages, by 55% for cash loans. Car loan issuance will show results comparable to the current year. The growth rate of the total retail portfolio in 2026 is expected to be 6%.

“Retail lending has passed the “recovery” phase: in the second half of 2025, we expect an 11% increase in overall market sales (compared to the second half of 2024). Next year’s results will depend on macro factors: the rate of reduction of the key rate, updated parameters of “family” mortgages, the situation with the disposal fee and planned changes in the rules for assessing the income of borrowers. However, the trend towards recovery in the retail credit market is clear,” noted Alexey Okhorzin.

*VTB forecast based on data from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and Frank RG, excluding POS lending.

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