It was not cheap since February 2021. Barryłka Brent oil on ICE with delivery to July was valued for a moment on Monday after even $ 58.51. for a barrel, after a 4 % discount And although then the price bounced to less than $ 60. This may mean that Russia sells its main export product after only around $ 35. And yet the dollar has also lost its value recently.
The basis for taxing the Russian oil and gas sector is the monthly export price of oil, calculated by the government in dollars. The reduction of oil prices registered in May will feel only from June, but in April prices fell, So problems are certainly visible now.
Tax 30 percent It is calculated from the Brent price reduced by around $ 25. If the price of Russian Urals has now dropped to $ 35, then the Kremlin only scoopes $ 3. from the barrel. In addition, oil companies probably limit mining from more expensive deposits, because the cost of mining in Russia exceeded $ 40. On the barrel, and only the main deposits have a low cost of $ 15.
According to the analysis from early April, economist Olga Belenkayi from Finam, Russian reserves should be enough for about a year if the Urals price of oil stays above $ 50. for the barrel – The Moscow Times wrote. At a price of $ 35 This time is significantly shortened.
411 thousand Barrels a day more
OPEC+ Alliance countries had a meeting on Saturday to determine their oil supply policy for June. Manufacturers agreed to increase the supply of oil in June the second month in a row, this time by 411 thousand. barrels a day The group informed.
The June increase in eight producers from the OPEC+ group will cause that in total in April, May and June 960 thousand will arrive on the market. barrels a day. This still means a reduction in cutting of extraction agreed in 2022 by 44 percent. – results from Reuters' calculations. Then OPEC+ decided to cut 2.2 million barrels a day. The group plans to organize a full ministerial meeting on May 28.
Saudi Arabia, i.e. the leader in OPEC+, warned the group members who are currently overproducing the limits for them, that If they do not comply with the rules specified by the group, it may result in an further increase in oil supply by OPEC+. Such words are just additional water for the speculation mill that the supply will increase.
– The increase in oil supply from OPEC+ simply will not be absorbed by the market. The increase in fuel demand is weak, especially after the recently applied customs tariffs by the US on their trading partners – said Ajay Parmar, director of oil analytics at ICIS.
