An expert from a large Russian bank gave a forecast for the key rate for 2026

VTB expects that the average key rate of the Bank of Russia in 2026 will be 15%, said First Deputy Chairman of the bank Dmitry Pyanov in an interview with Interfax. According to him, this figure is included in the bank’s business plan and reflects a significant decline from the peak level of 21% in 2025.

Pyanov noted that VTB’s retail business is “very sensitive” to changes in monetary policy. He also warned of possible turbulence in the first quarter of 2026 due to the VAT hike and uncertainty over how quickly rate changes would be reflected in prices. “Inflation expectations are likely to rise in the first and second quarters of 2026,” he added.

The first deputy chairman of VTB expressed doubts about raising the forecast for the average key rate of the Central Bank from 12-13% to 13-15%. He believes that the regulator should explain that this is due to the long-term effect of increasing VAT and utility tariffs in order to avoid disorientation of economic entities.

He also noted that he expects the exchange rate to weaken in the first quarter of 2026 “to more than 90 rubles per dollar” due to a sharp decline in sales as part of the mirroring under the budget rule.

Pyanov emphasized that the Central Bank’s promises on the key rate often turn out to be “Delphic,” that is, subject to changes depending on new data. In September, adviser to the head of the Central Bank, Kirill Tremasov, suggested that by the end of 2026 the rate could drop below 10%, but at a meeting on October 24, the forecast was revised upward.

The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on the key rate is scheduled for December 19, and the first in 2026 is scheduled for February 13.

Newslab now in MAX. News is also published in OK | VK | Zen | Telegram