In the analysis prepared by Andrzej Powierża from Citigroup, dated November 7, and quoted by PAP Biznes, it was emphasized thatThe capital organization of Bank Pekao and PZU brings benefits to the State Treasury. According to the analyst, the state will have the opportunity to decide on the allocation of additional funds, which makes the merger more profitable from its perspective than for financial investors.. Powierża also drew attention to the potential benefit for the state in the event of the purchase of own shares by Bank Pekao, co could increase the State Treasury's share in the group's shareholding, which as a result of the transaction would decrease from 34%. up to 27 percent.
At the same time, the analyst noted that the market's reaction to any suggestions regarding share buybacks may be positive, because such actions could directly encourage financial investors to support the merger. Since announcing reorganization plans in June, Powierża has maintained the position that the transaction is beneficial to shareholders, enabling the release of approximately PLN 16 billion of capital. However, it also highlights the political risk associated with the project, which results from the need to introduce changes to four acts and reduce the State Treasury's share in Bank Pekao.
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According to Powierża, there is a fear that signing the act increasing the tax on the banking sector and President Karol Nawrocki's veto on changes regarding banks and insurers could negatively affect the transaction. Although the analyst does not predict such decisions, he emphasizes that they cannot be completely ruled out. According to Powierża, the current structure of the PZU group is capital inefficient and limits development, which is contrary to the interests of Bank Pekao and PZU.
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The Pekao and PZU Group plan to allocate the additional capital generated through the transaction for development, acquisitions and increasing the return to shareholders. However, financial investors are still not fully clear on the balance between these goals. Powierża emphasizes that the merger is the only publicly discussed scenario that would allow the group to maintain its market share, keep Alior Bank within the group's structures and continue paying an increasing dividend.
The Minister of State Assets, Wojciech Balczun, recently suggested that the amendment of the four acts necessary for the capital reorganization of Bank Pekao and PZU may be divided into parts. According to the minister, such a step could improve the legislative process and reduce the risk of a veto by President Nawrocki. The draft amendment to the laws is to be considered by the government after the work of the steering team, which consists of representatives of Pekao and PZU, is completed.
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Bank Pekao estimates that the merger with PZU could free from PLN 15 to 20 billion of capital thanks to the use of the so-called Danish compromise. This mechanism would create conditions for financing large transformation projects and increasing the maximum value of individual transactions acceptable from a risk perspective.
In a commentary on the results for the third quarter, Bank Pekao noted that a greater ability to implement large-scale projects may be key to achieving the group's strategic goals, including in priority areas such as the transformation of the Polish economy.
