On Thursday, the government adopted the state budget draft on 2026. A slightly lower deficit (advantage of expenses over income) than this year. I am talking about PLN 271.7 billion. Defense expenses are a large component in it – they will amount to 4.8 percent. GDP, or about PLN 200 billion. Almost PLN 7 billion is to go to the housing, and health – PLN 248 billion. The budget includes funds for social programs, such as an active parent, widow pension, 800 plus, 13 and 14. Pension and valorisation of benefits. We wrote more about it here.
What are the first reactions of economists to the government's budget plans? Comments fell on social media.
State budget for 2026 “Without stimulating the investment, the next government will be in a trap”
“For several years, the amount of the budget deficit has not been showing the real state of the state budget. It is not worth exciting this amountbecause the real amount of the state budget deficit, calculated in accordance with the constitutional definition of the state budget, is most likely completely different by several dozen billion PLN! ” – comments Sławomir Dudek, president and chief economist of the Institute of Public Finance.
His opinion “Comparing the amount of PLN 289 billion (plan for 2025) from PLN 271 billion to 2026. This is a misunderstanding“” We are in a methodological mule. It is the government's duty to calculate and apply the correct and comparable definitions of the budget deficit, “he emphasized.
In turn, the chief economist of Employers of the Republic of Poland Kamil Sobolewski indicates that government expenditure financed by debt will add as much as 0.5 percentage points to GDP 2025. more than the average expectations. “In 2026, a deficit further 6.5 percent of GDP, and a debt over 66 percent of GDP, after correction by a borrowing part of KPO over 63 percent. Without stimulating the investment, the next row will be trapped” – he warned.
State budget for 2026 Bank economists comment on the assumptions
“Macro assumptions are realistic (height 3.5 percent, CPI 3, percent, inflation can even exaggerate) Increased income includes weaker data on the execution for 2025. EDP deficit (6.5 % GDP)
The economists of ING Bank Śląski point out that the central deficit of the state budget at 2025 is unchanged towards the plan, which means that sector deficit revision for 2025 will take place outside the central budget.
“The central deficit drops year -on -year, but in comparable conditions no longer” – they indicate. They also notice that net loan needs are growing and reach a record level in 2026, despite the smaller central deficit.” This is probably the result of taking loans from KPO in net loan needs ” – we read.
IN conversation with Business Insider Marcin Kujawski, senior economist of BNP Paribas Bank Polska, pointed out that after the realization of this year's estimates of the state budget revenues, The presented budget outline for 2026 seems quite realistic. He points out that A clear hole in public finances means the need to issue a significant amount of debt. “The fiscal bonus included in the tax yields of debt papers will remain high,” he assessed.
