Inflation in Poland in October amounted to 2.8%. The Central Statistical Office confirmed the preliminary reading
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2025-11-14 10:00
October was the third month in a row with inflation below 3% – confirmed the preliminary calculations of the Central Statistical Office. This does not change the fact that the prices of many services are still rising very quickly.
In October 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was about 2.8% higher compared to the same month last year – reported the Central Statistical Office. This means confirmation of the so-called quick estimate published by the Central Statistical Office two weeks ago. At that time, such a reading was a positive surprise, as economists expected the annual CPI dynamics to accelerate to 3.0%.
We have therefore had three months in a row in which consumer inflation in Poland remained below 3%. In August and September it was 2.9% after being 3.1% in July, down from 4.1% recorded in June. This July decline in the annual dynamics of the CPI resulted primarily from the expiration of the base effect in the form of last year's strong increase in government-regulated energy prices.
These readings are still higher than the 2.5% target of the National Bank of Poland.
But at the same time within the permissible deviation from this target – that is, one percentage point up and down. It is also worth remembering that for only In 4 of the previous 72 months, CPI inflation was within the NBP target. As a result, the NBP inflation target was permanently exceeded, both in the medium and long term. The average (geometric) CPI inflation for the last 5 years was 7.47%, for 10 years it was 4.51%, and for 20 years it was 3.35%.
Has inflation been brought under control?
On the other hand, for half a year we have been observing an almost zero increase in the consumer goods price basket at the level of the entire CPI aggregate. In October, the monthly CPI increase was only 0.1% after being zero in September and August. In July, CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month after increasing by 0.1% month-on-year in June and falling by 0.2% in May. Therefore, January is responsible for almost half of the increase in the CPI achieved in 2025, with a very large monthly increase of 1.0% m/m.
However, this year's decline in CPI inflation is caused by the so-called non-base prices. First of all, it is about lower gasoline prices than a year ago (the effect of the global decline in oil prices) and the stabilization of vegetable and fruit prices (the effect of good weather and large harvests). However, this is not due to the government or even the central bank, as core inflation (i.e. excluding food, fuel and energy prices) was 3.2% in September and has been above the NBP's 2.5% target for almost 6 years.
This inflation is driven by a very rapid increase in service prices, which in October were on average 5.6% higher than a year earlier – the Central Statistical Office reported. For comparison, commodity prices were expected to increase by only 1.7% YoY. This is also visible in the sectoral structure. Last month, statisticians noted a very rapid increase in prices in education, where rates were as much as 6.2% higher than a year ago. Hoteliers and restaurateurs increased their price lists by an average of 5.5%, and in the “communications” category, prices increased by 5.4% year on year.
“Health” prices also continued to rise rapidly, with prices 4.9% higher than a year earlier. This is a result of the almost double-digit dynamics of prices of medical and dental services. Therefore, price increases in the medical or educational industries are much faster than in other sectors of the economy.
On an annual basis, food and non-alcoholic beverages were still significantly more expensive than a year ago (by 3.4%), but prices remained at the same level as in September. The prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco products were growing very dynamically, for which, as a result of another consecutive increase in excise duty, we have to pay 7.0% more than a year earlier.
However, there were also categories in which the Central Statistical Office recorded a decline in prices. Traditionally, these were clothing and footwear (-1.1% y/y), which, according to government statistics, have been getting cheaper almost continuously for two decades. Fuel was still (even?) cheaper than a year ago, thanks to which prices in the transport category dropped by 2.3% y/y. Household equipment and maintenance were also cheaper than a year ago (-1.1% y/y). However, home use and energy consumption increased by 4.2% year on year.
