“Prepare for the second Cold War, no matter what happens in Ukraine.” A Russian dissident's warning to Europe
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, one of the Kremlin's biggest critics, who experienced Russian prisons and now lives in exile, is warning Europe to prepare for a long-term confrontation with Russia, regardless of how Moscow's war against Ukraine ends. The former oil oligarch explained to the European publication POLITICO that Russia will need decades to overcome the “imperialist-military narrative” promoted by Putin and that a key moment in which the Kremlin leader could be vulnerable has already been missed, News.ro quotes.
“We should expect a kind of Cold War that will last at least 10 years,” predicted former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky this week at a private event in Brussels.
According to the former exiled oligarch, the only deterrent against a new Russian aggression against Europe at this time would be for President Vladimir Putin to be convinced that the West represents a credible military threat.
During the Cold War, which lasted almost half a century, the Soviet Union and the West tried to undermine each other without risking open conflict in Europe and potential nuclear war. Today, top European and NATO officials argue that Russia is resuming a policy of attrition of the adversary, using hybrid warfare tactics to destabilize the West and sow division.
Khodorkovsky, who spent 10 years behind bars in Putin's prison system and now lives in London, downplayed the effectiveness of Western sanctions in influencing the Kremlin, saying they “create some pressure on the Russian economy, but nothing dramatic.”
He was equally skeptical that Ukraine's long-standing strategy of using drones against Russian oil refineries could cripple the Kremlin's war machine. “Even the most powerful drone, even a Tomahawk missile, can hit about two hectares at most,” explained Khodorkovsky, the former owner of oil giant Yukos and once Russia's richest man. “A typical installation in Siberia usually covers 1,500 hectares. The damage caused is equivalent to stepping on someone's foot,” he said.
The moment when Putin could be vulnerable
In reality, Khodorkovsky argued, the only time Putin's power could realistically have been cracked would have been in the first two years after the start of his full-scale invasion, if Russia had suffered a decisive military defeat in Ukraine.
But, he added ironically, “we have a tradition (in Russia) that our dictators leave somewhere between the ages of 70 and 80.”
Putin turned 73 in October.
Last month, Russian authorities opened a new criminal case against Khodorkovsky, accusing him of leading a “terrorist organization” and plotting a violent seizure of power with the help of Ukrainian paramilitaries. In its statement, the Federal Security Service (FSB) also listed 22 other people linked to Khodorkovsky's Russian Anti-War Committee, which groups exiled Russians with an opposition orientation.
Some of those appointed by the FSB have already served prison terms in Russia or faced the threat of prosecution for their political activities. But the list also includes academics and businessmen.
Khodorkovsky, an emblematic case
Khodorkovsky himself spent a decade in a penal colony in Siberia before being pardoned in 2013, in a landmark case widely seen as the opening act of Putin's campaign to crush dissent. Although the case focused on tax evasion and other financial allegations and led to the expropriation of Yukos, it was seen primarily as a political warning to critics of the Kremlin.
The new charges against Khodorkovsky and his allies came just two weeks after the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe said it would create a “dialogue platform” with Russia's democratic opposition forces.
Speaking in Brussels, Khodorkovsky said the Kremlin's strong reaction showed “how disturbed Putin is by the idea that Russian democratic forces are gaining legitimacy, even symbolically.”
Although the FSB appointees already live abroad and are outside the Kremlin's immediate legal sphere of influence, several have reported having run into problems with European banks and say terrorism charges could complicate their travels for fear of being extradited to Russia.
“My generation won't get it”
Mikhail Khodorkovsky told POLITICO that he is confident he will one day return to a post-Putin Russia, but warned that it will take decades for the country to free itself from the “imperialist-military narrative” that portrays Russia as surrounded by enemies and justifies invading its neighbors.
“My generation will not get to see the day when Russian society returns to normal,” he predicted.
Asked if that prospect discourages him, Khodorkovsky smiled. “When you work in heavy industry, you get used to initiating processes that will overtake you. From exploration of an oil field to production can take 15 years or more,” he replied. “The future is as real to me as the present and it motivates me,” added the dissident.
