Despite the historically low ratings of the Democratic Party among voters, its politicians achieved unexpectedly good results in Tuesday's regional elections, defeating Republicans in every field. According to party activists, this is the result of the party focusing on Donald Trump's broken promises to reduce the cost of living.
The Democrats achieved an exceptional victory in the regional government elections
Since Trump took power for the second time, poll after poll has shown the same trend: although the president's ratings have gradually and consistently declined, they have not improved the ratings and image of the opposition party, which, deprived of power, could offer mainly symbolic resistance to the president's next moves. At the end of September, in a Quinnipiac University poll, respondents' assessment of the Democratic Party was the worst in the history of over 30 years of research: only 30 percent had a positive opinion about it. respondents (Republicans – 38%).
Nevertheless, in Tuesday's regional elections in a number of states – the first electoral test of Trump's second term – Democrats won an undisputed and extraordinary victory.
The party's candidates won the gubernatorial elections in Virginia with a dozen-point advantage (Abigail Spanberger) and New Jersey (Mikie Sherrill), socialist Zohran won in New York Mamdani. The Democratic Party achieved similarly high and sometimes unprecedented victories in Georgia and Pennsylvania. How to explain these results?
According to Mike Nellis, Democratic strategist and podcast author, the victory was not a coincidence, but it does not necessarily mean the Democratic Party is back in favor with voters. As he told PAP, the results were mainly a sign of “rejection of Trumpism and extremism of the Republican Party“.
– Voters said “enough” very clearly. But just because they said that doesn't mean Democrats are back popular, Nellis said.
Cost of living in the USA: Trump promised it would be easier
As he explains, the key to the success of the party's candidates, as well as the defeat of the Republicans, was the cost of living. Trump, who won in 2024 thanks to his promises to immediately reduce prices, did not fulfill his promises – inflation, which had fallen before the elections, is rising again – and this is exactly what the Democrats focused their election message on.
– Democrats didn't win because voters suddenly fell in love with the party again. They won because they offered stability and empathy when the other side was giving them noise, Nellis said.
He pointed out that regardless of whether the party's candidates represented the moderate wing (the new governor of Virginia, former CIA officer Abigail Spanberger) or the left wing (new New York mayor Zohran Mamdani), they were focused primarily on the issues of the cost of living and Trump's excesses.
– If the party wants to maintain the ground gained this year, it must remain fully focused on the pain felt by people and be present in local communities – emphasized the commentator.
Matthew Klink, a political consultant associated with the Republicans, thinks similarly. He assessed that the price issue was crucial for voters' attitudes, although this does not necessarily guarantee that the Democrats will achieve a similarly good result next year, when the issue of control over both houses of Congress will be at stake.
The fickle American voter
– American voters are extremely fickle at the moment, which means they want their personal economic situation to improve immediately. So, despite the fact that Donald Trump has only been president for nine months, the cost of living issue has hurt President Trump, the activist told PAP.
He also added that the quality of individual candidates in individual elections also mattered. After his defeat, Trump himself complained about the party's candidate for governor of Virginia (current lieutenant governor Winsome Earle-Sears), while the Democrats fielded candidates who enjoyed wide support or – in Mamdani's case – mobilized young and the most left-wing voters.
Klink noted that election results do not indicate a clear winner in the Democrats' internal dispute between centrists and progressives.
-The two gubernatorial candidates who won in New Jersey and Virginia ran as moderates. They won by an overwhelming margin. However, in New York, Zohran Mamdani managed to convincingly defeat the establishment candidate, former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, the analyst emphasized. “This tension between the progressive left, reflecting the base of the Democratic Party, and moderate Democrats, who often swing between Republicans and Democrats depending on their economic situation, will be a battle that Democrats will have to resolve before the 2028 presidential election,” he added.
From Washington Oskar Górzyński (PAP)
osk/ mal/
