Putin's arch-rival warns Europe: Prepare for second Cold War, no matter what happens in Ukraine

Former oil tycoon and Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky has warned Europe to prepare for a long-term confrontation with Russia, regardless of how Moscow's war in Ukraine plays out.

Mihail Khodorkovsky PHOTO EPA-EFE

“We should expect some sort of Cold War to last at least ten years”the former oil magnate predicted this week at a private event held in Brussels.

According to the exiled businessman, the only deterrent against further Russian aggression on Europe this time around will be President Vladimir Putin's belief that the West poses a credible military threat.

During the Cold War, which lasted nearly half a century, the Soviet Union and the West worked to undermine each other without risking open conflict in Europe and possible nuclear war. Today, European and NATO officials argue that Russia is revitalizing the policy of attrition, using hybrid warfare tactics to destabilize the West and sow division.

The effect of European sanctions

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who spent ten years in Putin's prisons and now lives in London, downplayed the effectiveness of Western sanctions in influencing the Kremlin, saying they “creates some pressure on the Russian economy, but nothing dramatic”.

He was equally skeptical of Ukraine's long-running drone campaign against Russian oil refineries, believing it would not cripple the Kremlin's war machine.

“Even the most powerful drone, even a Tomahawk missile, can hit about two hectares at best”explained Khodorkovsky, the former owner of oil giant Yukos and once Russia's richest man, according to POLITICO.

“A typical unit in Siberia usually covers 1,500 hectares. The damage done is equivalent to stepping on someone's foot”he said.

Putin's control was undermined early in the invasion

In fact, Khodorkovsky argued, the only time Putin's grip on power could realistically have been undermined was in the first two years after the full-scale invasion began—if Russia suffered a decisive military defeat in Ukraine. That gap, he said, has now closed.

However, he added with a bitter smile, “we have a tradition [în Rusia] for our dictators to leave somewhere between the ages of 70 and 80.” Putin turned 73 in October.

Last month, Russian authorities opened a new criminal case against Khodorkovsky, accusing him of running a “terrorist organization” and that he planned a violent takeover with the help of Ukrainian paramilitaries.

Khodorkovsky spent a decade in a penal colony in Siberia before being pardoned in 2013, in a landmark case widely seen as the opening act of Putin's campaign to crush the opposition. Although the case focused on tax evasion and other financial allegations, and led to the expropriation of Yukos, it was seen primarily as a political warning to critics of the Kremlin.

Putin, worried about democratic forces in Russia

The new charges against Khodorkovsky and his allies came just two weeks after the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe announced it would create a “dialogue platform” with the Russian opposition democratic forces.

Speaking in Brussels, Khodorkovsky said the Kremlin's tough reaction was telling “how uneasy Putin is about Russia's democratic forces gaining legitimacy, even symbolically”.

Khodorkovsky told POLITICO he was confident he would one day return to a post-Putin Russia, but warned it would take decades for the country to free itself from “imperialist-military narrative” which shows Russia surrounded by enemies and justifies the invasion of its neighbors.

“My generation will not live to see the day when Russian society returns to normal”he said.