“This could end disastrously.” Russia on the edge of the abyss. Putin is afraid of a repeat of what happened years ago

Last week, the Governor of the Russian Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, presented the main directions of monetary policy for the next three years to the State Duma. If we judge on the basis of the scenarios for the development of the economic situation presented in the central bank's document, the base scenario (as it was called), i.e. the main one, looks quite doubtful.

Please judge for yourself: inflation is expected to slow down next year from the current rate of just over 8%. on an annual basis to 4-5 percent. GDP will slow down, but investments will “remain at a high level.” And already in 2027-28, “the economy will grow at a sustainable pace.”

Of course, it is conceivable that the inflation rate will almost halve, but only with the strictest monetary policy. However, Nabiullina promised parliamentarians to further reduce the basic interest rate. Of course, it is unlikely to do it quickly, but then inflation will not slow down dramatically. High level of investment? This is also interesting. Where to get the money, since currently investment activity is mainly represented by the state? Where to get the funds if, judging by the draft budget, the Ministry of Finance intends to introduce austerity mode?

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In order not to be false, I present data from the Ministry of Economic Development for nine months of 2025. GDP growth – 1%. compared to 4.3 percent in 2024 Industrial production increased by only 0.7%, and its growth is due to the machinery industry (+9.2%), and not even the entire industry, but only to some branches: electronics production (+14.4%) i “other means of transport” (+31.7%) behind which it is hidden drone assembly. She blossomed too pharmaceutical industry (+15.4%) – thanks to the forced switch to purchasing domestic equivalents of medicines. I have already written about the dangers this poses.

Everything else falls. Inflation has started to rise again since September, although producer prices are generally falling slightly – in September, inflation was 8.13%. , in nine months of 2025 – 5.11 percent , but it will undoubtedly increase. The main contribution to reducing inflation was made by the extraction of mineral resources: minus 13.9 percent

Honestly, this is an achievement of average quality: on the one hand, foreign exchange earnings and export revenues to the budget are decreasing, and on the other hand, the mining industries are trying to compensate for the decline in export prices with an increase in domestic prices. Just look at Gazprom, which won an accelerated increase in gas tariffs.

Consumer activity is changing – retail growth is declining (in total +2.1%, and in September even +1.8%), however gastronomy is growing rapidly (+8.4%, +10.3% in September). If you think people have started eating out more often, then probably not. In the period September–October, sales of basic food products in natural terms decreased by 5%, and revenues increase or decrease slightly.

This means that the increase in food prices forces people to save even on the most basic things. So why this sudden increase in the popularity of gastronomy? It all results from the same thing: meal prices are rising even faster than prices in stores, and even a decline in attendance cannot offset the overall increase in revenues.

There is another important reason prosperity gastronomy, or at least its high segment: over the last year Russia has rapidly increased the number of billionairesentering the top five countries in this respect. It is difficult for Russian citizens who became rich from the war to fly to Nice for dinner, which is why the luxury segment is flourishing.

Another trend is also driving the growth of the catering industry – the increase in deliveries to homes and offices. However, it is true that this only applies to Moscow and a few other metropolises.

Wages are also no longer growing at the current pace, and data from the Ministry of Labor indicate an increase in hidden unemployment: already over 250 thousand Russians were sent on forced leavea shortened working day or received a notice of dismissal.

Specialists not where they are needed

“Stagnation continues in the Russian economy. Taking into account local declines (on the production side – in civilian industries and construction, on the demand side – in the sphere of investments), it can be concluded that there is a risk of plunging into recession. The main driver of growth is currently the population's consumption – growing due to the “transfer” of gross value added to wages, the potential of which is limited,” says the Kremlin “think tank” CMACP.

In her speech to the State Duma, Nabiullina made it clear: there is no recession in our country and none is expected.

Because in the event of a recession, two things are inevitable: a sharp rise in unemployment and then a fall in real wages. We currently have neither one nor the other

– she explained.

As for the transition to a four-day work week and other unpleasantries, this is a tiny part of the labor market. In fact, we have a labor shortage and great wages.

It is not even worth mentioning that the shortage concerns mainly non-prestigious professions or those requiring low qualifications. Let me talk about something else.

For example, a three-year work period for doctors on assignment is currently being discussed – there is a shortage of doctors. However, the analysis shows that we have record numbers of doctors, they are just not distributed properly: salaries in the public sector are low and the job is nothing like what they dreamed of. That is why, for example, there is an excess of doctors in hospitals – at least there they really treat, and do not work as “dispatchers”, like therapists in clinics.

The whole country is full of such disproportions: it's just somewhere specialists are used ineffectivelysomewhere there is no possibility of moving to a more favorable region in terms of employment, somewhere it is enough to just retrain, but this work is not organized at all. Therefore, the “average temperature in the hospital” may be just perfect, but the “patients” may “recover”. Well, and the Ministry of Economic Development has said everything about wages: in general, they are not falling yet, but already they stop growing.

It's not us, it's them

So why does Nabiullina deny the problems in the economy? Because the Central Bank cannot say: “Dear MPs, we cannot independently fix what the top management is doing, and you are in cahoots with them. We simply do not have such powers, we can only raise interest rates to fight inflation, but you yourselves complain that the economy is already dying. So stop accusing us, we are doing everything we can, and if it doesn't work, it's not up to us to ask questions.”

In a situation where things are getting worse in the economy, two stages can be distinguished. At the first stage, he tries not to pay attention to “individual shortcomings” and explains that in general everything is fine and will get even better. When these “individual shortcomings” begin to coalesce into a picture of the northern furry animal, the search for a “scapegoat” begins. Since everyone sees that the perpetrator of what is happening is beyond criticism, it is easiest to blame the central bank, unwise population, greedy business.

Now, judging by the increasing number of high-profile arrests for corruption, they will continue to blame allegedly corrupt people.

The problem is that when a cancer patient is treated for bone pain, headaches, insomnia, and so on, but not the cancer itself, the outcome can be disastrous.

And the main culprit of the problems still boasts of last year's 4% GDP growth. Either they are afraid to tell him that 2025 will end soon and there is still no war, or they tell him and he doesn't hear.

What will he say next year? Speechwriters, don't worry, they'll come up with something. But the options are slowly running out. And if the government is afraid to make a diagnosis (or assures itself that it is not him, and is not even close), then the image of “We didn't expect” may arise again. Just like in 1998 or 2008. Only this time, an equally quick exit from the crisis may not be possible.