The authors began their material with the statement that “Putin is heading to the next stop.” They believe that Russia is not capable of repeating a full-scale invasion in other countries, as in Ukraine, but it can resort to covert influence campaigns, disinformation, destabilization and even military and intelligence operations.
“Warning signs” are emerging in Kazakhstan and Armenia, former republics of the Soviet Union, Crospie and Epstein write. They believe Moscow has stepped up efforts to destabilize these countries in recent months.
The publication draws attention to the fact that in the north of Kazakhstan, where predominantly Russians live, Russian special services tried to provoke unrest, and in Armenia, the church, which was accused of having ties with Russian intelligence, spoke out against the government. In addition, a pro-Kremlin businessman was arrested in Armenia as part of a case of preparing a coup.
What is happening reminds the authors of The Washington Post of the Russian Federation’s strategy towards Ukraine: to incite discontent in Russian-speaking regions, finance friendly oligarchs (for example, the former people’s deputy from the banned party OPZZH, Putin’s godfather Viktor Medvedchuk) and attracting the local Orthodox Church to its side.
Kazakhstan is “especially vulnerable” to Russia, experts say. They remind that the Kazakh army is “weaker than the Ukrainian one”, and the Russian-Kazakh border, 7.4 thousand km long, is “virtually unprotected.”
Crospie and Epstein doubt that Putin will attack Kazakhstan, but they are confident that the Kremlin leader can “prepare the ground” for this, and say that Kazakhstan’s “best defense” is to tie itself to China, Turkey, the United States and the European Union, increasing the political and economic costs of aggression.
Russian politicians and experts, including Putin himself, have previously spoken of Kazakhstan as a country that “never had statehood,” and Russian propagandists regularly accuse the Kazakh authorities of “Russophobia” and call for the protection of ethnic Russians, as they previously did in relation to the Ukrainian Crimea and Donbass, Crospie and Epstein warn.
As for Armenia, in their opinion, Moscow is interested in disrupting the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan signed with the participation of the United States. The reason is to regain leverage on the “Middle Corridor” – a trade route connecting Asia and Europe, bypassing Russia and Iran. The publication also states that now “Georgia is leaning towards Russia.”
The Kremlin can “destabilize its neighbors without firing a single shot,” experts say. According to them, the economic, diplomatic and technological participation of the United States can strengthen Kazakhstan and Armenia from Russian aggression.
