Al-Qaeda is on the verge of taking over a country / Wagner and the other military forces in Russia have failed

Al-Qaeda-affiliated fighters are close to capturing Bamako, the capital of the West African state of Mali, which, if the city falls, would become the first country in the world ruled by the terrorist group, the Wall Street Journal writes and Al Jazeera.

Islamist groups have seized power in both Afghanistan and Syria. But if the insurgents were to take control in Mali, it would be the first time militants with direct links to al-Qaida had achieved such a feat.

At this point, it looks like the fighters will wait for some time before making a decisive move, security experts say.

The insurgents are blocking food and fuel deliveries to Bamako, the country's capital, causing crises that are hampering even the military's ability to respond, according to local and European officials and images posted by the jihadists.

The group on the offensive is Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which translates as the Support Group for Islam and Muslims.

JNIM was formed in 2017 from the merger of veteran al-Qaeda affiliates and immediately pledged allegiance to the group. Its fighters have received bomb-making assistance and ideological training from the organization's central leadership in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, according to Western and African officials.

A gradual takeover of power

JNIM is aiming for a gradual takeover rather than an all-out assault, European security officials say.

“The longer the blockade goes on, the closer Bamako gets to collapse,” said Raphael Parens, a researcher at the Institute for Foreign Policy Research, a nonpartisan policy center in Philadelphia, quoted by the Wall Street Journal.

Access to fuel becomes the focus of the conflict. The lack of supply has caused the price of fuel to rise by 500 percent, from $25 to $130 per liter, according to Al Jazeera.

The government responded by suspending school and university classes for two weeks and shutting down some power plants.

Last week, Malian Prime Minister Abdoulaye Maïga promised that “even if we have to look for fuel on foot or with a spoon, we will look for it.”

A long struggle

Al-Qaida and Islamic State militants are waging insurgency battles across a large swath of West Africa, including Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali in the arid Sahel region, and are slowly moving into the traditionally more prosperous countries of Benin, Ivory Coast, Togo and Ghana along the Gulf of Guinea coast.

Western officials are increasingly concerned that al-Qaida, the more powerful of the two Islamist groups in West Africa, could seize control of Burkina Faso or Mali.

Mali, with a population of 21 million, looks increasingly likely to fall first.

The Islamists have demonstrated in Syria and Afghanistan that they can win a war of attrition in which the existing regime eventually collapses from within.

JNIM has said it wants to follow the example of the Taliban, who entered Kabul after the army they had been fighting for two decades effectively left the capital.

Malian jihadists view the capture of Damascus by a former al-Qaida affiliate as a “model” for their strategy, according to a United Nations report in July.

The French, expelled

In Mali, the insurgency began in 2012 before being taken over by Al-Qaeda's Malian leader Iyad ag Ghali, a Marlboro-smoking ex-rocker who radicalized and banned music in the territories he controls.

Ag Ghali remains unaccounted for despite being wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

His group gradually expanded its reach from the northern tip of the country to the gates of the capital. None of the foreign forces provided by the US, the European Union or the UN have been able to stop their advance.

The Malian military, concerned about the growing threat, overthrew the country's civilian government in 2020, then ousted its own commander in 2021.

The coups were followed by similar military coups in Burkina Faso and Niger.

The current Malian junta has expelled a French-led force and hired Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group, but even these have failed to quell the violence.

The Russian military presence in Mali is contributing to the collapse of the state

Kremlin mercenaries and their Malian allies have engaged in a campaign of widespread retaliation that has led many locals to join al-Qaida or at least seek its protection, human rights activists and local community leaders say.

Earlier this year, the Russian military sent a new contingent of fighters under its direct control, but they lacked the experience to fight effectively in Mali's rugged terrain.

The junta requested additional help from Russia. Last week, a visiting Russian delegation promised to deliver up to 200,000 tons of oil and food.

In an analysis on the subject, the think-tank The Jamestown Foundation concluded that the Russian military presence in Mali actually contributed to the collapse of the state.

Four years after the start of the Russian military deployment, which began with the arrival of Wagner personnel, Mali has become less secure and jihadists have become stronger, more numerous, more widespread and bolder in their attacks on urban centers and military bases, the analysis noted.

Three months after Wagner pulled out in June and after Russia's African Corps began deployment to Mali, Russia's military presence is not only failing to quell Mali's 13-year Islamist and separatist insurgency, but is now contributing to worsening Mali's political unrest, the analysis says.

Russian forces have failed to recapture jihadist territory in the north of the country, nor to prevent large-scale infiltration of Islamist militants into the country's once safe central and western regions, the analysis added.

Diplomats evacuated

Meanwhile, the US said it was evacuating some diplomats from its embassy and urged American citizens to leave the country immediately. Italy has taken similar measures.

European security experts say the Malian regime is unlikely to fall in the short term, however, as insurgents will find it harder to control major cities than rural areas.

Instead, a future government, especially if the junta falls, could negotiate with the jihadists, they say. They point out that community leaders have already held talks for local ceasefires with JNIM in the central part of the country.

Meanwhile, the insurgents are consolidating their control over the rest of the country and taxing the gold and narcotics transiting Africa from Latin America to Europe.

Mali citizens who have this option are trying to leave. In recent days, some have flown to neighboring countries such as Senegal and Ivory Coast, Malians living abroad say.

334,000 people have already sought refuge in neighboring countries.