INTERVIEW “Romania is in the most vulnerable area”. What follows after the US decision to partially withdraw troops from our country

Romania must try to negotiate a gradual withdrawal of the US military, but also discuss with other NATO allies about the possibility of them sending troops to our country, says Ionela Ciolan, an expert in international relations and security studies, in an interview for the HotNews audience, after confirming Washington's decision to partially withdraw American soldiers from Romania.

Romania can take the US decision to resize the troops in Romania as a signal that the time has come to be more proactive in the effort to ensure its security, taking into account that it is in the most vulnerable area of ​​the eastern flank, says in an interview for HotNews Ionela Maria Ciolan, researcher at the think-tank Wilfried Martens Center for European Studies in Brussels, where she coordinates the activity in the fields of European foreign policy, security and defense.

What could Bucharest do?

First of all, the expert believes, the authorities could negotiate with the US so that the withdrawal is gradual. Then, she says, Romania can discuss with other NATO allies the possibility of them sending troops to our country: France, which has troops, but could supplement them, and Germany are two options.

In the medium-long term, the expert says, it would be advisable for Romania to include in its strategy the idea of ​​a “strategic triad”, in which the security guarantees are NATO, the strategic partnership with the USA, but also the deep integration into the security and defense policy of the EU.

The expert believes that in the coming period, Romania may be the target of a Russian disinformation campaign, with the role of increasing anti-American sentiment and discouraging Bucharest's support for Kiev.

“Clearly, we're going to appear to be the weak link in the protection of the eastern flank, and to make sure that we don't have that perception, that the Russians don't have that perception of us, we're going to have to work with other allies to help us increase that security posture,” the researcher concluded.

US decision 'not a surprise'

HotNews: Is this US decision, confirmed today by MApN, a surprise?
Ionela Maria Ciolan: For me, as a researcher who works on the transatlantic relationship and everything that means the eastern flank and all the changes that are happening in Ukraine, but also on the topic of the American presence in Europe and then the European defense policy, it is not a surprise.

Obviously, it would have been preferable not to reach this scenario, but we already know for several months from the public statements of several representatives of the Trump administration, that they are thinking about it and that there will be certain troop withdrawals from Europe.

The idea of ​​withdrawing the very rotational troops that President Biden has sent to Europe to increase the security posture after Russia's invasion of Ukraine begins in 2022 is being discussed.

Then we were talking about a number of 20,000 American soldiers who were deployed in Europe. Obviously now, from what the Romanian authorities say, we are talking about that American rotational contingent.

“It is important that our leaders in Bucharest try to negotiate a gradual withdrawal”

What is important to state in this scenario is that it remains to be seen how this withdrawal will be achieved, and it is important that our leaders in Bucharest try to negotiate a gradual withdrawal and a prepared withdrawal.

This is with the idea of ​​trying, on the one hand, to negotiate with the Trump administration so that this withdrawal is gradual, or maybe at the same time to try to do what is called “damage control”, to try to negotiate with other NATO allies the possibility of them sending their troops to Romania.

For example with France, maybe the possibility of increasing the French contingent in Romania.

With Germany, with which Romania just recently signed a bilateral security and defense partnership.

Or perhaps allied states that would have an interest in practically preserving this security and defense position, the credibility of this NATO post and in our part of the eastern flank.

“Romania is in the most vulnerable area of ​​the eastern flank”

I have said in numerous cases in the last year that Romania's position is practically in the most vulnerable area of ​​the eastern flank and that we are what I call the Achilles' heel, in terms of the security and defense strategies of NATO and the EU, precisely from the perspective of the fact that the Black Sea is currently an active war zone.

And, unfortunately, the fact that we have neighboring states in our region that sometimes have different perceptions regarding the relationship with Russia, this has also led to the fact that we have not been able to have regional cooperation and a common voice in projecting the region's interests in Brussels or Washington.

This is in opposition to what the Baltics and the Poles are obviously doing, who cooperate very well and in bilateral and regional formats to do more advocacy for the security position in the Baltic Sea.

The impression was created that the Baltic Sea is the weak link in the protection of the Eastern flank, which in reality, after the integration of Sweden and Finland into NATO, we see that the Baltic Sea has become an almost exclusive NATO area, so that area is much safer, while our area is basically the vulnerable area, the Black Sea area.

“There was a moment when Romania failed to convince the Biden administration that the troops they sent here would be permanent”

– Could Romania do something to prevent this partial withdrawal? We know there have been discussions about this. Just recently, Foreign Minister Oana Țoiu said she agreed with Marco Rubio that it is very important that this presence continues. Is this a failure of Romania in the relationship with the USA or was the decision made?
– It is very difficult to say if Romania could have done something better in the last months, because in reality we already know that many in the Trump administration were talking about this position of the United States even during the election campaign of the candidate Donald Trump for the second term in the White House.

Basically, they bet on the fact that the Americans will withdraw from Europe, that they will have to deal more with security in their region, and then also about this shift of the pivot from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. And we see, in addition to this dimension that has been developed in recent months, the dimension of security in the area of ​​the Americas, basically a very great interest for Latin America, because it is considered an area that also relates to internal security.

It matters a lot what kind of leverage each state has, what kind of opportunities it has to keep the US engaged in that region.

The US remains engaged in Romania, but I think that somewhere there was that moment when we, in Romania, failed, practically during the Biden mandate, to convince the Biden administration that the troops they sent to Romania were permanent troops and not troops in rotation format.

I think maybe there was a mistake or a failure, if we want to call it that, that I don't know if it was a mistake, and maybe we fell short of that goal and now we're basically seeing the consequences.

Romania must think of a more complex security system

I would also like to point out that this decision can also be reversed.

It matters a lot what Romania will do in the next period, if there are changes in attitudes in Washington, because if we look at the relationship between the United States and Ukraine, we saw that there were a lot of contradictory decisions and then positions and then changes regarding their respective positions.

Here, the Romanian decision-makers must see what leverage (leverages) or American interests in Romania we can find to convince the Americans to be much more interested in our region.

But I would add something else. It is about the necessity of thinking about a security system or more complex security guarantees for Romania. Because we are also in this period where we are discussing a lot about the future new national defense strategy.

In the last strategy, the country's national defense strategy, for the period 2020-2024, it was based on the premise that the main security guarantees for Romania are NATO membership and the privileged relationship with the United States.

Instead, based on these accelerated transformations that we have in the international system and in the security architecture in Europe, I think we need an updated approach to this premise in the national defense strategy.

In the medium-long term, it would be advisable for Romania to include in its strategic thinking and in the future national defense strategy a strategic triad in which the security guarantees for Romania are on the one hand NATO, then the strategic partnership with the United States, but also deep integration into the security and defense policy of the European Union.

Because we see that the EU is developing this pillar of its security, we see that the EU is in the process of becoming an actor in the field of defense and has many initiatives to strengthen what we call in Brussels, the European pillar of NATO and to build this European Defense Union, all that means this area that will cover all these gaps left by a withdrawal of the United States from Europe.

Romania can conclude security partnerships with countries such as Poland

– So we could take this decision also as a signal that the time has come to be more proactive.
– Totally agree and I would bring here another dimension that is developing a lot and that we don't really talk about in Romania. The idea of ​​developing bilateral security and defense partnerships.

Since the war in Ukraine started, we see that many EU states have developed and signed many bilateral security and defense partnerships with other neighbors, other NATO or EU member states depending on their national interests.

Romania signed a partnership with Germany this year, but I think it would be appropriate to sign such partnerships with Poland as well, for example, to ensure that we have a common understanding regarding threats and danger on the eastern flank, with France, if we think about cooperation with states with which Romania already traditionally has a very close relationship and thanks to the very large Romanian diaspora in the respective countries, Italy and Spain, which can help with know-how and in terms of defense industrial development.

If we thought of security as the foundation of a house, we would practically add another layer to protecting that foundation.

“Clearly we will appear to be the weak link in the protection of the eastern flank”

– How could Moscow interpret or exploit this US decision to partially withdraw from Romania? Could she be encouraged to step up her hybrid warfare?
– I think that here, in the next period, we will see a massive disinformation campaign, because we know that the Kremlin is already trying to take advantage of all the vulnerabilities in the countries it targets.

There will be campaigns to increase anti-American sentiment in Romania, for example. There will also be campaigns promoting the idea of ​​peace, and through the idea of ​​peace, they will encourage the idea that Romania should no longer help Ukraine, because that puts us in a vulnerable position and that the Russians could attack us.

So we have to expect all kinds of such disinformation and societal polarization messages in Romania in the next period.

As far as hybrid attacks are concerned, Russia was not deterred by the American presence in Kogălniceanu either. Because if we look, in recent years we have had numerous violations of airspace by Russian drones, accidental or not.

Also, recently, our intelligence services thwarted that bomb attack in Bucharest. So basically, Russia is already waging a hybrid war against Europe.

That is why it is very important that Romania, on the one hand, tries to strengthen its security posture and credibility, because, clearly, we will appear to be the weak link in the protection of the eastern flank, and to make sure that we do not have this perception, that the Russians do not have this perception of us, we will have to work with other allies to help us increase this security posture.

This is by inviting other allied states to send troops to Romania or by other formulas that can increase the credibility of NATO's commitments in our region.