Economist Iancu Guda noted that in the June-August period, the most new businesses (SRL) were established compared to any other 3 consecutive months in the history after '89. These companies alone created more than 20,000 jobs, which reflects the degree of confidence in the economy.
Timid signs of economic recovery are starting to appear. PHOTO: Pexels
Romania's economy is still suffering, but the first good news is appearing, among so many disappointments. Economist Iancu Guda claims that Romanians are gradually regaining their taste for investments, and in recent months the number of new businesses has increased. In a post on Facebook, Guda refers to the fact that Romania's economy, although not very toned, is starting to show good signs.
“No one is saying this, but something unprecedented is happening in Romania: the most new businesses (SRL) were established in the period June – August compared to any other 3 consecutive months in history after '89: 26,122 new companies established, an increase of 64% over the same period of the previous year (when 15,891 companies were established). See the figures in graph 1 (monthly series) and 2 (cumulative YTD series). Historical high”says the expert.
What does this mean for the economy?
He then explains why this data is important to the economy. “It is extremely important, because these companies alone have created more than 20,000 jobs in these 3 months and reflect the degree of confidence in the economy. I know we like to complain and see the glass half empty (that's how we Romanians are), but how do you interpret these numbers? Am I allowed to give my opinion? However, I am the first to notice the numbers (I have not seen anyone say that)”he says.
Further, Iancu Guda details and explains how he got here.
“What I think. In general, in the past years PFA growth reflects a slower growth or decrease in the number of newly established LLCs (due to tax optimization opportunities between them). Now, thanks to the reduction of tax advantages between organizational forms, and thanks to political stability and the preservation of the country rating by continuing the pro-European path and avoiding a hard recession, stability is driving the growth of the number of SRL with 5,356 companies (from 59,142 Jan-Aug 2024 to 64,498 Jan-Aug 2025 with a cumulative +9% in the first 8 months, but +64% in the last three) while at PFA the advance is 9,877 (from 18,105 Jan-Aug 2024 – 27,982 Jan-Aug 2025 +55% ) under the conditions in which the number of jobs in the sector private has not decreased (so it is not a reorientation towards PFA / micro from labor contracts, proof that the budget receipts from labor taxation increased by 12%, double the increase of the average gross salary by 5.5%, so it is also compliance in the payment of salaries against the background of the tightening of penalties for evasion and illegal work)”details Iancu Guda.
Increases confidence in the economy
If the pace continues, he says, there is hope that things will really start to get back on track. But the best news would be, Iancu Guda believes, the fact that Romanians still seem to have confidence in the national economy, although Romania is not going through a very good period.
Iancu Guda
“In total, registrations of legal entities increased by +20% in the first 8 months of this year, the highest absolute and percentage increase after 2020. If this rate continues until the end of the year, we have a chance to register more than 150,000 legal persons in 2025, the second best result after 1989 (only in 2022 we exceeded this threshold with 156,903) – see graph 3. In a word: confidence in the economy (with good, with bad, as it is, on the difficult road of reform that is done with very high resistance from the system)“, he claims.
Iancu Guda also states that immediately after the elections, after President Nicușor Dan won his first mandate, the message sent to the economy was a very good one.
“I am convinced: many of those who wanted to venture into the jungle of entrepreneurship postponed their plans between January and April (during which SRL registrations decreased by -16%) due to the risk that Romania would isolate itself economically and go into a severe recession and bankruptcy in the month of Lent, if the alternative of bankrupt nationalist isolationism was chosen. Immediately after May, of course, we see in the period June-August historical growth (absolute number, % growth and new jobs, etc.) of new business. What do you guys think? However, these are unprecedented numbers in the last 35 years… I don't think it's a coincidence that it's happening exactly in the last 3-4 months, don't you think?”concludes Iancu Guda.
