Mariia Tsiptsiura, Onet: : In connection with the planned meeting in Budapest, can we say that there has been another Trump “turn” and to what extent was it expected?
Petro Ołeszczuk: We expected this because Trump's goals have not changed and have not changed regardless of his, let's say, political maneuvers. Only the tactics changed.
What is its main purpose?
Trump's goal is to reach an agreement with Putin and thus present himself as a great peacemaker. The measures he used throughout time changed. For a long time, Trump tried to convince Putin to agree to a ceasefire, using compliments, promises of favorable contracts, the lifting of sanctions, etc. That is, he tried to act as loyally as possible. This line culminated in negotiations in Anchorage during Putin's visit to Alaska.
However, as recently reported in the media, Putin in Alaska refused to end the war and instead began giving Trump long lectures on history, which irritated him greatly. That's basically where the negotiations ended. After this, Trump apparently decided to act from the other side – by putting pressure on Russia, but at the level of statements and demonstrations of force.
These include both promises to help Ukraine in the form of weapons, in particular Tomahawks, and talks about sanctions against China – all of these are elements of one game. The idea is to force Putin to negotiate again, but through pressure. And of course, all these “Tomahawk stories” are simply part of Trump's aggressive negotiating strategy.
His goals have been unchanged since the beginning of his presidency: to come to the negotiating table with Putin, to agree on peace, to conclude an agreement. Maybe win the Nobel Peace Prize. Everything Trump does is a tactical tool to achieve his main goal. Trump started with compliments — “Putin's a smart guy” — and now he's gone on to threaten to “give Ukraine missiles.” These are all variations of one strategy.
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“Putin is paranoid”
They have now agreed on a new meeting. What can you expect from him?
Honestly, I don't expect much. There are no signs that Putin has changed his approach. By the way, according to Ushakov's information, the initiator of yesterday's talks was Putin, i.e. the Russian side. It appears that Trump managed to scare the Kremlin with the prospect of delivering Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Initially, Moscow threatened Trump that it would “ruin US-Russian relations.” Now Putin is proposing a personal meeting to delay the trial. According to Trump himself, first there should be a meeting at the delegation level – probably Secretary of State Rubio on the US side, Lavrov on the Russian side. They must agree on the agenda and possible solutions, after which a direct meeting of the leaders may take place.
Will this meeting actually take place?
I doubt it. How Putin will reach Budapest is a great unknown. Maybe NATO countries will let him fly through their airspace, but Putin is paranoid. He is afraid to fly over NATO territories, especially near Ukraine. And although the arrest warrant doesn't really worry him – everyone already understands that the International Criminal Court is practically non-functional – he certainly worries about the plane being shot down. It's hard for me to imagine how he will go to the center of Europe with this paranoia.
Putin is simply playing for time. He doesn't need this meeting – he already got everything he wanted in Alaska: he triumphed, shook hands with the US president. It simply benefits him to delay the process until the United States decides on sanctions or missiles for Ukraine. There will be stories about “you need to agree on documents”, “Budapest is not suitable”, “it is better to meet in Istanbul” – and so on.
Trump considers himself a great diplomat
What about Trump? Will he continue to put pressure on Russia or will he take a break while waiting for the meeting?
I think he's quite happy now. He believes that his bluff worked and that Putin believed him. Trump considers himself a “great negotiator.” Therefore, he will probably take a break from further activities.
What is Ukraine's role in this whole setup? Can Zelensky “tug the line” to our side – convince Trump to support Ukraine instead of waiting for a meeting with Putin?
Here you need to act very carefully so that Trump does not feel offended. His diplomatic skills cannot be questioned – he is proud of them, especially after his history with the Middle East. He believes in himself as the outstanding diplomat of modern times, so any attempt to suggest that he is wrong may be perceived as an insult. I would just wait until he meets Putin again and sees how he is stalling and leading him by the nose. Well, Trump wants another defeat. We can't forbid him from doing this. When Trump himself realizes that an agreement is impossible, he will be reminded of the Tomahawks.
