We are witnessing the Russian “maskirovka” – showy activities intended to attract public attention – told PAP prof. Marek Wrzosek from the Military Faculty of the Academy of War Arts. In his opinion, by multiplying hybrid operations now, the Russians are taking advantage of the political revaluation in Europe.
According to Russian intelligence, London “together with NATO partners” is planning an attack “on a Ukrainian navy ship or a foreign civilian ship in a European port.” For this purpose, the British authorities would allegedly use a group of Russians fighting on the side of Ukraine, whose “training is already underway.”
According to Russian intelligence, the British then intend to blame Moscow for the sabotage action, and the entire operation would serve as a pretext to increase military support for Ukraine and accelerate rearmament in Europe.
At the end of September, the same Russian service also “warned” against an alleged Ukrainian provocation against Poland, which – according to its narrative – could become the “spark of World War III” and drag the NATO country into an armed conflict.
According to an analysis by the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), specializing in security matters, whose board includes, among others, retired general David H. Petraeus, these messages from Russian intelligence, which have become increasingly frequent in recent weeks, are “new pattern of actions” on the Russian side.
“A number of overt and secret attacks on Alliance countries in recent weeks may indicate that the Kremlin has decided to enter the war phase at a higher level than now and to prepare for a future conflict with NATO,” wrote ISW in its analysis “Assessment of the Russian offensive campaign.”
The Institute reminded that since September 9, the following events took place: incursions of drones into the airspace of Poland and Romania, violation of Estonia's airspace by Russian fighters, the appearance of unidentified unmanned aerial vehicles over the airports of Denmark, Germany and Norway (in the latter country they occurred again on the night of October 5), as well as an attempt to disrupt the GPS signal of a plane with the Spanish Minister of Defense on board.
According to ISW, a wide range of types and locations of recent sabotage and information operations are aimed at arousing a sense of omnipresent threat in Europe and reluctance to adopt any armaments.
“Residents of the Old Continent fear that continued support for Ukraine will expose them to intensified Russian attacks, both overt and covert,” according to the ISW analysis, which also quotes yesterday's words of Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of the Russian Security Council, according to whom drone attacks “will help Westerners feel what the danger really means war.”
– Nothing is as troublesome for society as the failure of banks due to cyber attacks, suspended aircraft traffic or immobilized trains – said Prof. in an interview with PAP. Marek Wrzosek from the Military Faculty of the Academy of War Arts.
In his opinion, Russian sabotage operations aimed at intimidation are effective because they affect as large a social group as possible. In his opinion, Europeans are getting the message planned by Russian propaganda that “they must take into account the fact that by directly supporting the fighting Ukraine, they become a party to the conflict.”
According to the ISW analysis, repeated Accusations of Western countries of planning false flag provocations may also serve Russian propaganda on the domestic market.
“In this way, the Kremlin wants to change Russians' perception of the West by holding Western actors – and not Russia – responsible for attacks or threats to carry out them,” we read in the institute's analysis, which also emphasizes that the Kremlin can create conditions “to gain public support for possible future Russian aggression against NATO.”
Also according to prof. Wrzosek cannot rule out that the Russians are deliberately informing about the possibility of an allegedly British attack in order to demonstrate the efficiency of their intelligence activities.
– Therefore, this may be a typical Russian “maskirovka” and “demonstrative” activities that have no connection with reality, but attract public attention – noted the expert, although he noted that he also takes into account another scenario due to the significant number of details in the Russian intelligence message.
– It is possible that Russia will send its own soldiers to the sabotage operation. If such actions fail, the Russian side will officially deny it, as was the case during the Russian intervention in Crimea, said Wrzosek, recalling that Russian propaganda then denied that the “little green men” were Russian soldiers and talked about the activities of local self-defense structures.
In his opinion, the Russian Federation will again want to transfer responsibility for its own sabotage or even terrorist actions to someone else, and today these will be countries that support Ukraine.
– It cannot be ruled out that the Russians will want to use the potential of criminal groups to incite social unrest. In one Western country, gangs will start shooting at each other and a regular street war will begin, said Wrzosek.
In his opinion, this will allow Russian propaganda to spread a narrative about a destabilized Western country in which law enforcement forces are unable to cope even with an internal threat.
As the expert admitted, such sabotage or sabotage operations are probably already being prepared by the Foreign Intelligence Service, and the Russians are just waiting for a convenient moment to be able to say: “we warned against this, we counted on such a possibility, but none of our Western partners listened to us.”
In the opinion of PAP's interlocutor, sabotage or even terrorist actions may also occur in Poland.
According to the expert, multiplying hybrid operations right now, The Russians are very good at playing on the fact that in many European countries the political scene is being re-evaluatedgovernments change or – as in France – they fall. The Russians know that this is the best opportunity to mobilize forces that have so far been against supporting Ukraine and increasing Europe's military budget.
– Russian propaganda is trying to provide fuel for these forces. The false information spread by their media about alleged Ukrainian and British provocations under a false flag serves exactly this purpose, said Wrzosek.
Anna Gwozdowska (PAP)
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