On Wednesday, the National Bank of Poland has published the latest results of surveys in which it regularly questions experts representing financial institutions, analytical and research centers and organizations of entrepreneurs and employees every quarter. In the September edition there were 23 respondents who presented their forecasts of key economic indicators.
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NBP survey. Inflation forecasts in Poland
Typical scenarios for the shaping of average annual inflation for this year are between 3.5 and 3.9 percent, with a central forecast equal to 3.7 percent. In subsequent years, experts expect to reduce the average annual price growth dynamics.
Typical scenarios for 2026 are between 2.4 and 3.5 percent. with an indication of about 2.9 percent, and on 2027: between 2 and 3.6 percent with an indication of 2.7 percent
“The probability of the formation of the average annual CPI inflation at a level not exceeding the upper limit of the deviation range from the inflation target of the National Bank of Poland (the limit is 3.5 percent) is 23 percent. for 2025, 76 percent for 2026 and 73 percent for 2027” – we read in the study of the NBP.
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In turn, the probability of average annual CPI inflation in the range of 1.5-3.5 percent. (NBP goal), it is 23 percent for 2025, 66 percent for 2026 and 58 percent for 2027
NBP survey. Polish GDP forecasts
A survey in terms of economic growth gives similar results. The range of typical scenarios for real GDP This year is between 3.1 and 3.7 percent. The central forecast is 3.4 percent.
On 2026 it is similar (3.3 percent)with typical scenarios between 2.7 and 4 percent In 2027, experts expect to reduce the dynamics of economic activity: 50 % probability range covers values from 2.2 percent. up to 3.9 percent, with a central forecast equal to 3 percent
NBP survey. Interest rate forecasts
Experts of macroeconomic survey also spoke about interest rates. Currently, the main rate is 4.75 percent.
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For 2026, the boundaries of the most common forecasts are 3.7 percent. and 4.42 percent, and the central forecast is 4.04 percent Typical NBP reference scenarios in 2027 are between 3.16 percent. and 4.22 percent, and the central forecast for this year is 3.6 percent.
NBP survey. Forecasts for the labor and currency market
The predictions about the unemployment rate are quite stable. In the years 2025-2027 it will amount to 5.2-5.3 percent.with a decreasing annual growth rate of average gross nominal salary.
According to forecasts, Wage increases this year will amount to about 8.1 percent. They will slow down to 6.7 percent in 2026 and 5.5 percent in 2027
According to experts surveyed, this year EURO currency exchange rate will amount to PLN 4.25, and in the next two years the average will be at a slightly higher level, respectively 4.28 and 4.29 PLN.
