Soldiers returning from local wars have become many times the driving force of the attacks State: in 1980 in Turkey, in 1974 in Portugal, in 1952 in Egypt and 1936 in Spain. The rebellion of Jewgenija Prigożyna is part of the same series. He was only stopped by the fact that the head of the Wagner Group was more careful about money than in power. Therefore, the return of the army from the front is a real threat to the Putin regime.
In the conditions of a totalitarian dictatorship built by Putin, without democratic elections, a change in power is only possible in two ways: As a result of the coup d'état or through the natural death of the ruler. Last week we learned that Putin is planning to live to 150 years – transplanting the organs and filling with botox to the ears.
150 years is about 12 presidential terms in Russia. From the perspective of eternity, it's not so much. However, this means that of these two options, the military coup The most realistic way to change power in Russia. And every day of this war only increases the likelihood of such a scenario – the sources of the Reuters agency suggest.
We can now see how Putin's “heroes”, after returning to Russia, kill, rape and mutilate every day – that is, they continue what they do during the war in Ukraine. Their mass return increases the risk of not only the increase in crime, but also the loss of power by Putin himself. Logically, it is safer for him to keep people in the war than near the walls of the Kremlin.
Continued article under video material
Sometimes a small spark is enough
Each end of the war will ask Putin a number of painful questions. Russia began it under the slogan “Fight for sovereignty”, but in fact it was in a global dependence on China. 10 years ago, Senator John McCain called Russia “a gas station pretending to be”. Today it could be clarified: it is a Chinese gas station.
The question “was that what we fought for and died under Ukrainian drones?” (assembled from Chinese components) can become an impulse for military staffwho will return home after the war. Then a small spark is enough – just like the ban on using social media in Nepal, which caused the uprising – and the system that seemed strong yesterday will fall apart as if it never existed.
Putin is an ordinary retired military, fascinated by history and conspiracy theories. Due to its nature, he assesses the risk of a coup d'état from his own “warriors” as extremely high. Under these conditions, continuing the war is simple for him a guarantee of preservation of power and life.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, September 15, 2025Vyacheslav Prokofyev / AFP
Putin's simple logic
Therefore, no “exchange of territories” will force him to stop hosting. For Putin, non -fighting is more dangerous than a fight. Logic is simple: It will stop only where he will be stopped. The only question is whether it will be near Krama, Lviv, Warsaw or the La Manche channel.
Recently, Moscow has been more and more brazenly provoking NATO. On Friday afternoon, three Russian fighters crossed the airspace over Estonia. For 12 minutes they flew over its territory, heading towards the capital of Tallinn. – This year, the Estonian airspace has been violated four times, but never for three MIG planes at the same time and not for 12 minutes – notes the military expert Carlo Masala (Bundeswehr University in Munich).
Just a few hours later, two Russian combat aircraft Russian fighters made a low flight over the Petrobaltic drilling platform in the Baltic Sea. “The Platform's safety zone was violated. The Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland and other services were informed,” the border guard said.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
