Coșmar scenario – the drones in Poland, only a diversion, Romania would be the real target. The head of the generals: “The action of the Russians was deliberate”

The drones sent by the Russians on Poland could be a mere diversion, while Moscow could target other states, even Romania, is a scenario that cannot be taken out of the calculation. General (r) Dan Grecu, the head of the Romanian officers, comments for “Adevărul” this terrifying scenario.

Romania has lifted F16 aircraft against Russian drones. Photo: rumanianmilitary.ro

The episode of the drones that targeted Poland, hardly shot down not by the Poles, but by the planes of the allies supporting Warsaw, gives great headaches in Brussels and other European capitals. Although Russia immediately took a step back and said that in the middle it would be a mistake and that it would not have targeted Poland, Moscow's message is not the most credible.

The real reason behind the Kremlin's action remains even harder to decrypt, and political and military analysts fail to agree. Most of them believe that the Russian Federation wanted to test the defense of Poland and NATO. A minority speaks of an error of the Russians, while others, and fewer, explores a variant that, if proven, would directly target Romania.

Fortitude Operation, the perfect diversion

This last hypothesis, for the time being spoken more in a whisper, would argue that Russian drones launched on Poland would have been a simple diversion meant to mask another real target on the eastern flank, possibly even Romania. It would not be for the first time in history when Russian strategies, but not only them, pay attention to the true target. The best example would be the landing of Normandy Allies, in World War II, when the Germans were misled and made to believe that they will be attacked in other strategic points. The North Fortitude Operations, through which Nazi Germany was made to believe that the allies will hit its bases in Norway, respectively South Fortitude. Through Fortitude Sud, it was sought to induce the idea that the operations of the Allies would have a target of Calais, causing the Germans to concentrate their number in the area. What followed is known. The allies hit the strength by landing in Normandy, and the action has proved a huge success, which the fate of World War II has largely depended.

The head of the Romanian generals, skeptical that Russia would attack Romania military

General (r) Dan Grecu, president of the Association of Reserve Officers, a doctor in military sciences, analyzes, for “Adevărul”, the script for a Russian diversion in Poland to aim, in fact, Romania or another country on the East Flank. The general decorated in the past by the United States of America, the UN and NATO, is not convinced that the Russians would have such a plan, but admits that Romania, but also the entire North Atlantic Alliance, cannot afford to underestimate the Russian federation and are obliged to carefully analyze any variant and take the most suitable measures to discourage Moscow.

“Personally I do not think that the Russians would target Romania in order to attack us with conventional military means. That is, yes, we are targeting us, we are an important target for them, but as part of a hybrid war, there is no doubt. The Russians do this. Ever since the 90s I was their target, now that we do not have a NATO. hybrid have much more to win if they would attack us directly.claims the general.

Regarding the drone that flew on Saturday, September 13, the Romanian air space, General Dan Grecu says that it is an exceptional case and cannot be compared to what happened in Poland. “There have been countless similar cases and not only in us. Of course, such cases should be treated seriously, and I am convinced that they are treated like this, but it is not necessary to panic or believe it is an attack. The drone has entered and left our air space without causing incidents, and the army proceeded correctly when it raised F 16” he says.

We give millions on rockets to break down drones of several thousand euros

However, there is a problem, valid in the case of Poles. “We pick up F16 aircraft for some drones worth several thousand euros. Much more cost to pick up those planes. It would be ideal to find other solutions, it is not long -term effective to fight drones of several thousand euros with rockets that cost millions and planes.”warns the general.

What is very clear, says General Dan Grecu, is that the action of the Russian Federation in Poland was not an incident.

“I say from the beginning that this action was deliberate. We are talking here about a violation of the Air Space of Poland, NATO's airspace. And I understand that all the drones that entered the Polish space were bait drones. These are not made to produce a kinetic result, that is, to produce special damage, but their main purpose is to overload the defense systems, radar systems, the opponent's jamming systems, so that the true attack drones, in the case of the Russians, Shahed 131, 136 or the Russian variant Geran 1 and 1 and 2, can reach as much as possible or as much as possible. Of course undisturbed. In Poland we are not talking about an attack, but we are talking about a challenge and a testing action for both Polish anti -aircraft defense. However, this action can also be linked to the Zapad exercise, which is carried out in Belarus ”says General Dan Grecu.

Instead, the general does not believe that the Russian Federation would prepare to attack Poland. The purpose of the aforementioned action would, in fact, belong to the hybrid war triggered by Moscow against the Allies and not a conventional military one.

“Even if we see kind of interpretations, as it would have been an accident, as Peskov said (no- Dmitri Peskov, the spokesman of the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin) that Russia has no goal to attack Poland. And it cannot otherwise attack it because the drone that fell in Poland is only 700 kilometers. He left an open window, to say that it is rather an attack under the false flag led by the Ukrainians.”Says the general.

The Russians took it in front of NATO at the Drone chapter

If there were voices that criticized the NATO reaction, considering it pale, General Dan Grecu is of the opinion that the Poles and Allies reacted as in the book. On the one hand, the Allies sent a firm answer to Moscow, but without provoking, without escalating.

“Poland, like all the countries of the eastern flank of the Alliance, enjoys the presence of the so-called reinforced air police, through which the alliance states supplement the anti-aircraft defense capabilities. In the case of the Baltic states, the Air Police is fully provided by NATO, including Romania. Drones, as proof, Poland immediately requested the activation of consultations between the Allies, based on Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The alliance, traditional, as well as with new capacities, especially those meant to counteract the actions of the drones ”adds the general.

General Dan Grecu. Photo: Adevărul archive

Among so many positive aspects, General Dan Grecu also has a much less soothing remark. NATO seems to have remained behind, compared to the Russian Federation and even to Ukraine, in terms of drones.

“Let us recognize, allied states are not yet, at the level at which the Russian Federation and even Ukraine reached. When I say, I refer to the professionalism and versatility with which the drones are used in the operations in the Russian-Ukranian war. General Dan Grecu points out.

What will follow

From now on, allies will increase their presence on the eastern flank, especially in the north of the flank. This means that all Poland and Baltic countries will be the main beneficiaries.

“From what I know, the host states are not nominated, but only the contributing states, namely Denmark, France, Germany, possibly the United Kingdom, who have announced that they will send additional planes. Denmark will send a frigate, but from what has been communicated to NATO, it seems that the action will focus on Poland and the Baltic states, but it can be for Variority. Including in our area, of Romania, but as things can be seen in Poland will be in the center of attention again ”, points out the general.

This decision should not surprise. Poland is the main NATO pivot on the eastern flank, and the Warsaw diplomacy knows how to speculate this.

“Poland has made great progress in the field of defense and not only in the field of defense. It has made progress from all points of view in recent years and is positioned, and not only from my point of view, as a reality, as a force of NATO.”, General Dan Grecu considers.

As for Romania, even if it has not been directly targeted by actions such as the one in Poland, the general considers that a series of measures are required.

“We were protected from the Russians's attacks. Well, neither Poland and no NATO state was directly attacked, in kinetic form by the Russian Federation. However, we will have to continue to strengthen our army. Another solution is not. To strengthen our army, to continue the purchases started, but especially to give much more interest to the army,” concludes the Genral Dan Grecu.