What could be the following actions of Russia after the drone incident in Poland? The scenarios of a security expert
After the unprecedented incident on the night of September 10, when at least 19 Russian drones entered the Poland's airspace, the scenarios on possible future actions in Russia in the border area with NATOs become more and more darker. Those conveyed by security experts include the hypothesis of a hybrid challenge with “wandering” Russian troops intentionally on the Allied territory.
Russian soldiers in Ukraine/Photo: Archive
The military analyst Igal Levin comes with this warning, in a post published on his Telegram channel. According to him, the next possible step of Russia could be the controlled dislocation of a small number of soldiers near the border with Poland, Lithuania or Finland, during military exercises, with an “accidental miss” in a border village.
“The Russians could announce to NATO that, during the maneuvers, a group of soldiers lost, or that one of the military vehicles has failed. They will talk about the electronic equipment of the Ukrainians, about accidents, about the wounded who cannot move. They will build a humanitarian pretext in the middle of an ambiguous situation.”explains Levin.
According to the analyst, Moscow's stake is to test the limits of the NATO reaction. A force intervention against stray and possibly injured soldiers could be cataloged as an act of aggression – which Russia could use propagandistic, but without necessarily willing to escalate.
“If NATO hits a platoon of military who>, the Kremlin can ask if the Alliance now participates in the Ukraine war. But if it does not hit – it signals that it tolerates infiltration.”
According to Levin, the Kremlin leader knows when to withdraw and challenge. “He is trained not to force front. But if he is not confronted, he will continue. The Kremlin will not regret the loss of several soldiers, if the result is the weakening of NATO credibility.”
Real test: How NATO reacts to the gray area
The analyst points out that the entire Russian strategy is based on the “gray area”: it is not a conventional war, but no peace. In the past, Moscow has operated on mercenaries, armed “civilian” people, “green man” or special forces without significance.
Therefore, he believes, NATO should transmit a clear position in time: “Anyone who is passing the armed border, even by mistake, will be considered a threat and will be neutralized.”
Belarus drones – warning signal
Returning to the recent incident, the Polish authorities reported that 19 Russian drones violated the national airspace on the night of September 10. According to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, some of them came directly from the Belarus territory, which further complicates the security equation on NATO's eastern borders. Fragments of drones were discovered on the territory of Poland, and at least one civilian housing was damaged.
Following the official request of Poland, NATO activated Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which provides for immediate consultations between the Allies if a Member State considers that its territorial integrity or security are threatened.
