No one can stop Putin's shadow fleet. For years, experts have been speculating about the most effective weapon in the fight against the infamous armada of Putin tankers, which allow him to transport oil and bypass sanctions. However, it is not only about suspicious units.
There have been reports about cameras, spy equipment and people in uniforms on board of ships, and in some cases it seems that Russia is using war ships to deter NATO. Baltic countries want to react hard to the actions of the shadow fleet – we already had a case when the Estonians, trying to stop the suspicious Jaguar ship, They were scared by the Russian fighter. This situation occurred in the airspace of Estonia, i.e. the NATO country. The hybrid war in the Baltic Sea develops at our eyes at a disturbing pace.
The situation that occurred in May with the suspect “Jaguar” was filmed and the recording appeared on the internet. A week and a half after this dramatic event, “Jaguar” left Russian waters and swam next to Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Germany and Denmark.
There is no doubt that the fight of the West with the shadow fleet is something that Russia treats very seriously. The Russian Federation is ready to take far -reaching actions to protect its property in the Baltic Sea. Moscow has already accused, among others, Great Britain of planning sabotage actions against tankers from the shadow fleet.
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A lot of NATO ships swim in the Baltic Sea, which observe ships and Russians in general. All kinds of inspections were also introduced in the Gulf of Finnish and the Kattegat Strait.
However, this is also not enough. The European authorities are repeatedly cheated on false documents, although some units manage to stop.
The ship must have insurance and other funds protecting coastal countries against accidents and ecological disasters, but the authorities must have an extremely important reason to stop commercial vessels from free sailing in international waters.
As a result, the shadow fleet despite the patrols of NATO ships and 18 different packets of sanction – it still swims on the Baltic Sea, transporting valuable oil of Russia.
In the war with Putin's tankers
One of the strongest tools are strict sanctions against Russia, especially its exports of oil, aimed at punishing it economically. Many of these sanctions are targeted at the shadow fleet. However, new data show that even they are not able to completely stop ships.
Danwatch
Shipping routes before and after their sanction
Each ship is assigned a unique registration number, which remains unchanged throughout the entire operation of the ship, regardless of how many times it is sold or changes the name and flag.
So if the ship is sanctions, it risks that it will become a kind of persona non grata at sea or, in this case, nave non grata. There have been cases that the ship was sanctions by Great Britain, the EU or USA and suddenly stood idle for many weeks. However, the latest analysis shows that this is not as effective as initially thought.
In the scientific article just published, the assistant professor Evgeny Gołowczenko from the Institute of Political Sciences of the University of Copenhagen attempted to determine the effects of sanctions. In short, sanctions affect the ability of ships to further transport Russian oil, but the ships still swim – though with more difficulties.
Depending on the point of view, the results of the analysis are either very encouraging or depressing. Ships are less likely to travel to ports, swim on shorter routes and perform less controversial transhipments at sea.
The author of the study, Jewgieże Gołowczenko, said in an interview with the Danish service “Danwatch” that Dan shows that “targeted sanctions actually effectively limit” ships routes, wrapping to ports and transhipments.
However, the data also shows that the sanctioned part of the shadow fleet “still swims to some extent, even if its activity has been significantly limited” – notes Gołowczenko.
Heikki Saukkoma/Lehtikuva Oy/East News/East News
Eagle S tanker belonging to the Russian shadow fleet, which could be used to damage the submarine cables in the Baltic at the end of 2025 (illustrative photos)
So if the goal is to completely stop the shadow fleet, then in the light of this data it should also be considered that something more is needed than the sanctions that have been adopted so far.
In the study, Jewgieże Gołowczenko compared sanctioned tankers with the control group of other tankers to see how their behavior changes. The main conclusions are as follows:
Sanctioned ships wrap to ports by 53 percent. Less often, which indicates that finding a port where they can moor is more difficult;
After applying sanctions, ships swim on average over 83.6 % shorter distances;
A significant decrease in the number of controversial transfers of loads from the ship to ship is also observed – after applying sanctions, 36.5 percent were recorded. fewer such transfers;
There was no difference in the number of events in which ships turn off transponders and hide their location.
For example, Denmark has already invested in two new drones with a large sail, which are to monitor and protect Danish territorial waters. The Danish armed forces did not want to confirm the “Danwatch” website that they were watching the Russians, but in the e-mail they wrote that they were conducting “an operational test of unmanned floating units”.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
