Gold in the hands of the MPC. Euro course stable for now

Before announcing the decision of the Monetary Policy Council, the euro exchange rate remained close to the center of the consolidation interval. Analysts assume that the MPC will not want to weaken the zloty too much.

This afternoon we will know the September decision of the Monetary Policy Council, which in the unanimous opinion of the economists is to reduce interest rates. The market consensus assumes a cut by 25 pb, but there is also a risk of reduction by up to 50 pb. In such a situation, the zloty could seriously hit and the euro exchange rate go to the area of ​​4.30 PLN.

– On Wednesday, the role of domestic factors in shaping the PLN trend will significantly increase, as the two -day meeting ends with the MPC. The consensus of economists indicates that the council will reduce the NBP interest rates by 25 PB. Key for market – currently high valuations of this year's NBP rate discounts (about 75 pb. To the end of this year), which burdened PLN – there will be a message after the MPC meeting and First of all, the Thursday conference of the President of the NBP – written in the PKO BP report.

In anticipation of news from the NBP, the euro exchange rate on Wednesday in the morning was at the level of PLN 4.2581. We have not been observing more important movements for several weeks. The EUR/PLN exchange rate from April moves in a side trend with a range of PLN 4.20-4.30. At most of this time, Euro-gold was in a narrow range of PLN 4.23-4.28.

– We assume that finally the message from the MPC meeting will be at most moderately pigeons, which should strengthen PLN slightly and direct the EUR/PLN exchange rate closer to 4.25, provided, however, that the global aversion of investors to risk will not increase significantly – PKO BP analysts pointed out. The market consensus assumes that after the September reduction of the feet in the NBP by the end of the year, there will be only one cut – by 25 PB. in November.

– Cutting the feet on it is practically certain if the unanimity of the forecasting and the market is a Proster. Nevertheless, the MPC likes to surprise, and communication of further movements will be as important as cutting (or lack thereof). The space for surprises is double -sided – the economists of Bank Pekao noted.

Meanwhile, we watch globally a fairly unexpected counterattack on the Euro-Dolar market. The EUR/USD exchange rate, instead of attacking this year's maximum (1,1829), fell below USD 1.17 and on Wednesday morning remained under pressure from sellers. On the Polish market it meant a dollar after PLN 3,6571. Also on the Dolar-Gold steam for four weeks we have been observing a narrow side trend, located slightly above the 4-year minimum at the end of July.

The situation on the Frank-Zloty steam remains without decisions. The Helwecka currency in the morning was listed after PLN 4,5443. In the morning, Frank began to weaken in relation to the euro, which resulted in erasing earlier steam increases with Polish gold. As a result, a side trend with a range of 4.50-4.60 PLN remains current.

However, it is getting more and more interesting on the British pound market, which in steam with dollar remains under pressure of sellers due to the growing fiscal problems of Great Britain. As a result, Szterling costs only PLN 4.8920. This year's minimum is 4.85 PLN and it can be tested in the coming days.

KK

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