The key question is whether sanctions can cause changes in Russia. The theory assumes that the deteriorating economic situation – unemployment, price increase, lack of basic products – stimulates society to protests or even to pressure on the authorities. Another perspective is to influence the elite: impoverished due to sanctions, they could try to influence the regime or even overthrow it. “The problem is that these concepts do not work in the case of Russia,” notes Gessen, analyzing the reality there.
Read also: Donald Trump talks about the chances of agreement
Social apathy in Russia
While ordinary citizens are gradually struggling with adversities, the Russian elites remain inviolable in the face of the crisis. For many Russians, life under sanctions becomes a daily struggle for survival. “In such conditions, there is a lack of energy to interest in politics” – indicates the commentator. Social dissatisfaction does not translate into mobilization or clear opposition to the authorities. In addition, in a country where the flow of information is controlled by the Kremlin, independent voices are effectively suppressed.
The same sanctions do not lead to the expected changes in the Russian elite. The authorities carefully ensure that the rich and influential to have access to resources. After applying restrictions on access to Western markets, Russian millionaires began to move to places such as Dubai or returned to Moscow. Gessen warns against the naive assumption that the strengthening of the circle of people competing for a shrinking “economic cake” can cause conspiracy against Putin. “The only effect is tightening the competition among the elites,” he emphasizes.
Putin ready for the years of war
Against this background, Donald Trump, who considers the strategy of economic pressure, faces the challenge of understanding Russian realities. For him, the engine of human activities is money, and the Kremlin motivations remain a mystery. Meanwhile, Putin made war in Ukraine with his key priority, both political and psychological. The Kremlin has repeatedly emphasized – reminds Gessen – that the war with Sweden during Peter and lasted 21 years. The message is clear: Moscow is ready to fight “constantly”.
Trump's idea for diplomatic negotiations may prove to be a naive form of political spectacle. Russia will not change its approach as a result of sanctions, and the only thing that Putin is afraid of Gessen is also what sanctions cannot ensure – the military defeat of his troops.
