Trump enters the “Putin yard”. Can make an almost impossible
In the July interview, the leader of Azerbaijan Ilham Alijew, who has long been an ally of Vladimir Putin, He expressed Solidarity with Ukraine and called Kyiv to regain the territories occupied by Russia.
These events show that Azerbaijan no longer intends to tolerate everything that Moscow does. In addition, the war in Ukraine affects the southern Caucasus, as is the last escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran. In the region in which the states formed after the collapse of three former empires – Russian, Ottoman and Persian – has been fighting for influences – for a long time shift.
Russia loses influence, and Türkiye and Azerbaijan want to fulfill the vacuum of power. At the same time, global public opinion almost did not notice that a chance for a long -lasting room between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which would definitely change the balance of the strength in this place, suddenly opened in the region. At the beginning of July, after more than 30 years of war, both countries met for the first time without intermediaries and announced the pursuit of a peace treaty.
On Friday it can be finalized. US President Donald Trump announced that he would accept both leaders in the White House for “the official ceremony of signing the peace agreement”. Trump declared on Thursday on his Truth Social internet platform that he was happy to welcome the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Alijew and Prime Minister Armenia Nikola Paszyniana na historical peak. In addition, the United States will sign double -sided economic agreements with countries.
Also between Armenia and Turkey, after decades, there are signs of careful normalization of relations. What does the new balance of power look like in the region? What does each of the countries have to gain and what can be afraid?
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan is autocratically ruled the best armed country in the region And – unlike Armenia and Georgia – it remains independent of Russia in terms of energy supply. The country has rich oil and gas deposits and doubles the war against Ukraine. First of all, as a supplier of raw materials for the EU, which wants to become independent of Russia. Secondly, because the Kremlin needs a southern Caucasus as an alternative market and a place to avoid sanctions.
– Alijew is currently full of confidence – this is how Stefan Meister, an expert on the Caucasus from the German Foreign Policy Association (DGAP), says about President Azerbaijan. The country wants to become a new power power in the region – together with Turkey, with which Baku maintains the best relations. In addition, Azerbaijan is an ally of Israel, with whom he works closely in energy and arms matters.
The new balance of power allowed Alijew to end the 30 -year conflict in his favor: from the breakup of the Soviet Union Azerbaijan and Armenia have repeatedly fought for the region of mountain karabakh, which, according to international law, belongs to Azerbaijan, but was controlled and inhabited by Armenia.
In 2020, Azerbaijan captured the majority of territories controlled by Armenia, and in 2023 he took over the remaining part. Russia, the current protective power of Armenia, remained passive.
Azerbaijan joined the peace negotiations with Armenia with maximum demands, demanding the corridor to the Azeri enclave Nachiczewan. In this way, the isolated Armenia would lose not only state territory, but also the external border with Iran – next to the border with Georgia, the only open border currently through which trade can be conducted. This is basically an unacceptable option for Yerevan.
Armenia
The defeat in the war with Azerbaijan and the loss of mountain karabakh were for Armenia traumatic experiencebut they paved the way to resolve the conflict. The country also has no other choice: the Armenian position on the geopolitical map is extremely unfavorable.
Türkiye is in the west, which has not been responsible for the Armenian genocide in the Ottoman Empire to this day. In 1993, both countries broke diplomatic relations and the borders remain closed to this day. In the east there is a long -time enemy, Azerbaijan – Armenia has the opportunity to trade only in the north and south.
An important partner of Armenia is just internationally condemned Iran, as well as Georgia, whose government, however, abandoned the course of pro -western and has been approaching Russia for years. Thanks to the agreement with Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia could become part of the “middle corridor”, bypassing Russia of the trade route from China to Europe.
Erywanie feels betrayed by Moscow And he does a lot to reduce dependence. By strengthening democracy and civil society and ratification of the Roman statute of the International Criminal Court, the country wants to take a course to the West and the EU. Nevertheless, the dependence on Russia remains high – a significant part of the infrastructure and energy supply is controlled by Moscow.
Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Paszynian and President Azerbaijan Ilham Alijew, Abu Dhabi, July 10, 2025.
Russia
From the time of the tsarist empire Russia considers the Caucasus to be its yardbut as a result of the war in Ukraine she lost its influence. “Russia is no longer a hegemon in the southern Caucasus,” says DGAP Meister expert. For a long time she dictated the conditions to the former Soviet republics in the Caucasus. Now Moscow needs these countries as a transit area and a sales market to bypass Western sanctions – and suddenly it must negotiate its influence.
The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia was beneficial to Russia. Moscow sold weapons to both countries and benefited from weakening hostile pages. Therefore, she is not interested in improving the relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
– The room weakens Russia's position in the region – says the Armenian security analyst Areg Kochinyan. However, this is what Trump can reach now.
In military terms, Russia still dominates in the region, but is currently occupied by Ukraine. That is why Moscow is trying to push her interests through economic pressure and propaganda. The Paszynianie, which Moscow would like to replace the pro -Russian candidate in the 2026 election, was already focused on the Armenian premiere.
Georgia
In Georgia, a script is being implemented, to which Russia is striving in Armenia: this country broke with a clear pro -western course and again drifts towards Moscow.
Georgia was a candidate for membership in the EU, and now Brussels is even threatened with sanctions. The ruling Georgian dream promised the population closer to Europe, but despite several months of protests, it introduced regulations against civil society, modeled on Russian, and suspended the process of joining the EU.
Behind the Georgian dream is the oligarch of Bidzina Iwaniszwili, who would lose power as a result of reforms for the rule of law, in accordance with the EU guidelines. The case of Georgia shows How difficult the course west can be for a country that has not completely broken relations with Russia And he did not free himself from dependence on her.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, 31 July 2025
What next?
The future of the region also depends on the wars against Ukraine and between Israel and Iran. If the Russian troops withdraw from Ukraine, the risk that Moscow will intervene in the South Caucasus increases, taking military provocations.
The weaker Iran, the smaller Armenia's field of maneuver. Because Türkiye and Azerbaijan consider themselves “brotherly states”, the opening of the border between Turkey and Armenia would only be possible with the consent of Azerbaijan. Despite this, the Meister Caucasus expert believes that the chances of entering into a peace treaty are “greater than ever”.
Trump is full of expectations in any case. He announced that Friday would be “Historical day for Armenia, Azerbaijan, USA and the world”. The three -sided document is to be signed at 16.15 local time.
The CBS station has announced that the agreement grants the US the right to create a 43 km corridor in Armenia, which is to be called “Trump Road for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP). The EU, which depends on gas supply from Azerbaijan, so far only observes the development of the situation.
