According to Daniel Frieda, a veteran of American diplomacy, an unexpected Russian proposal of the Trump-Putin meeting that appeared after the Wednesday conversations of Putin with the envoy of Trump Steve Witkoff, It is associated with “obvious threats”, but there is also a “less pessimistic” scenario.
– Putin can play with Trump, play to avoid sanctions and other types of economic pressure. And then he wants to pull Trump on a bad contract, after which they would both entrust Zelanski and force him to accept this bad system – says Fried, sketching, “black script“.
In his opinion, the more optimistic scenario is that Trump, sensing a change in Russia's position in response to the pressure of sanctions, “He is aware that Putin is on defense and will want to push through a better system for Ukraine, starting with the actual, complete suspension of weapons“.
– (Secretary of State) Marco Rubio suggested yesterday in an interview that the Russian position is still not acceptable, but that Moscow at least withdrew from its maximum demands. So further pressure is needed – he noted.
Sanctions for India may not be enough
According to Fried, an additional 25 % announcement customs duties on goods from India because of buying Russian oil is a potentially good move, but it will only be effective if subsequent secondary sanctions for Russian oil followed. Trump on Wednesday announced that he would apply subsequent sanctions, but according to the former ambassador, everything will depend on the details.
– Trump has repeatedly reached the line of doing something against Putin, but then he left her. If, despite the planned meeting, he decided to fulfill his ultimatum and impose subsequent sanctions on Friday, he would take talks from the position of strength – he assessed.
Trump's 10-day Ultimatum against Putin with the threat of imposing secondary sanctions and duties, if Putin disagrees with the truce, he passes on Friday and as the American president suggested on Wednesday, he plans to realize his threat.
Despite this, many issues are still unclear, in whether there is a meeting at all. The statements of the Kremlin officials are only talking about the Trump-Putin meeting, perhaps next week in the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, the White House and Trump suggested a different format of the meeting: double -sided between US and Russia leaders, after which the tripartite with the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelnski. The Kremlin has not yet confirmed that Putin is ready to meet Zelanski, while according to “New York Post” for the White House it is a necessary condition for the organization of the peak.
Chance of a breakthrough in the war in Ukraine
It is also not clear, which meant that after months of the deadlock just before applying the sanction, there was a chance for a breakthrough.
According to Frieda, the basic American proposal has been the same for a long time: a suspension of weapons, de facto recognition of Russian territorial achievements and the likely further abolition of sanctions against Russia. Until now, Russia has demanded recognition as part of even those territories that it does not control (but which it annexed), as well as the actual disarmament of Ukraine.
– We do not know if Russia will accept the American proposal. Putin, like Stalin, was very good in speaking generalities that sounded good, but they meant nothing. I suspect it is so now – said Fried.
Read also: Ukraine applies to Poland for a loan for the purchase of weapons. Multi -million amount
– But it is also true that the United States has a means of pressure that give them an advantage. Trump did not use them and to be honest, Biden did not use everything he had at his disposal either. And if Trump gave Putin clearly to understand that he was ready to hit hard, Putin can scale that it pays to take what he has already won, announce a victory and redraw the map. Because he is aware that the Russian economy is susceptible to shocks. This is the good scenario He added.
