Surprise on the unemployment rate. Pekao: at the end of the year clearly above 5.5 percent

The unemployment rate in July surprised again: increased to 5.4 percent. In view of the expected 5.2 percent – they wrote on Platform X Analysts of Bank Pekao. They added that the data still has statutory changes, which caused that in June and July over 50,000 registered. additional unemployed.

“July brought a again surprise at the unemployment rate, which increased to 5.4 percent against the expected 5.2 percent. The reason? In the data, statutory changes are still infaming. For this reason, in June and July there was a total of up to> 50,000 additional unemployed! As a result, the unemployment rate will be clearly above 5.5 percent at the end of the year – they wrote in the commentary on the platform x Bank Pekao.

In the commentary on the data from June, they indicated that the Act of 20 March 2025 on the labor market and employment services offers unemployed greater flexibility in the registration process at the Labor Office: it allows registration in the place of residence, and not, so far, registration, and a group of persons authorized to support was expanded to be expanded with farmers.

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Then they estimated that about 30,000 The new unemployed who appeared in the system between May and June are people who have remained unemployed before, most of which are farmers who obtained the possibility of registration after the change of regulations.

MRPiPS said on Wednesday that the unemployment rate in July amounted to 5.4 percent. compared to 5.2 percent A month earlier, 830.6 thousand were registered in labor offices. people.

The ministry added that both structural changes in the economy and the new regulations regulating the functioning of the labor market in Poland were influenced by the formation of these indicators.

On June 1, 2025, a new Act on the labor market and employment services entered into force, whose provisions allow maintaining the status of an unemployed person without the need for personal appearance at the Labor Office. According to the ministry, this limited the number of deregistns and thus influenced statistical data. (PAP Biznes)

JZ/ ANA/