If the list of exceptions includes the most important categories of lithographic and process tools, Cost pressure in the USA will be smaller and voltages in the transatlantic supply chain will be limited. However, we are still talking about a compromise worse than before 2025, which from the point of view of investments and prices remains a brake. Especially for equipment produced in Europe on the American market.
For BIG Techów operating in the EU, the European rules of the game are the most important today, which have not been violated by a tariff agreement. The EU Act on digital markets (DMA) applies and is enforced against the so -called Gatechers: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Bytedance, Meta and Microsoft, and from 2024 also booking.com. It is she, along with DSA, forces interoperability, limits the recommendations of her own services, facilitates uninstalling pre -installed applications and imposes transparency in profiling users.
The European Commission has been conducting current proceedings and accepts compliance reports, and recently confirmed that it is not planning to transfer supervision costs to BIG Tech in the form of a new supervisory fee. In other words, Even if customs voltages from the US have faded, the advantage of large platforms in Europe is to be still balanced by hard sector regulation.
Check also: The US and the EU reach an agreement on customs. Trade war resolved at the last minute
Big techs are unlikely
Taxes are another pillar. The Union has implemented a global minimum CIT (so -called second OECD pillar) – 15 percent Effective rate for the largest groups from the end of 2023, along with the rules that allow you to collect a tax extra charge if it has not been paid elsewhere. Ireland, a traditional marina for Big Techu tax structures, today applies 15 percent. to entities over EUR 750 million in revenues, maintaining 12.5 percent. for smaller companies. In practice, this limits the sense of old optimization constructions, although the differences between jurisdictions – and the lack of full implementation of the rules in the US – make the tax planning not completely disappear.
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At the level of data and transatlantic compliance, the EU -Us Data Privacy Framework remains important. It has been in force since July 2023 and simplifies data transfers to certified companies in the USAbut is the subject of announced and pending legal challenges. Any weakening of this bridge – whether through a court judgment or political decisions – would raise the costs of compliance for cloud and advertising Big Techów models and hindered the scaling of the European SaaS -om operating globally. Tariff truce does not change anything here. This is a separate risk area that technology companies must monitor in parallel.
In semiconductor innovations, the image is mixed. The European ACT chips mobilizes up to EUR 43 billion in public-private investments and enables wide state support, which translates into further aid decisions and projects. At the same time, the European Court of Auditors estimates that Achieving the goal of 20 percent global production until 2030 is unlikely at the current pace and scale of financing.
In this context, agreement with the US is mainly important as long as it stabilizes the environment for capex (investment outlays) in production plants and equipment. Especially when chip production equipment is permanently on the list of exceptions. Any additional cost at the US -EU border would increase the risk of moving the investment or transferring the stages of the value of value outside Europe.
Read also: The first comments after the USA -EU agreement. Analysts do not have good news
Ai Act will gain in importance
Two intra -European vectors cannot be missed. First of all, AI Act begins in stages: from February 2, 2025, “unacceptable risk” systems are prohibited, and On August 2, 2025, they come into force, among others obligations for suppliers of general use models and order components. This will force additional investments in compliance, both in Big Techu and the European Scale -ups. But it can also become an export advantage of the EU if ethical and documentary standards become a global passport in adjustable sectors.
Secondly, The EU regime of control of foreign subsidies is pushing in practice. It limits the possibility of competing in tenders by subsidized entities outside the EU, which is important for American companies using generous industrial support in the country. These two processes together with DMA build a market structure in which Big Techu's advantage resulting from financial strength and user base are to some extent balanced from the side of the regulation
Will European technology companies have equal chances with Big Tech from the USA? Still not fully. Tariffs at the entrance to the US will remain a cost ballast for EU equipment exports and components, although their standardization up to 15 percent. and exclusions for part of the category relieve the problem in the most sensitive bottleneck of the supply chain. On the other hand, on the EU market, American platforms are less and less often due to regulatory and support arbitration, and more and more often from scale, data and ecosystems. DMA, DSA, AI ACT and minimum CIT limit the system difference, but will not replace capital, talents and risk appetite. Therefore, equal opportunities will depend on whether the EU maintains the pace, will efficiently implement a befit (a common tax base for large groups), while simplifying the conditions for scaling companies on the uniform market. So that European companies do not have to sell global giants to grow.
Trip has limited volatility and allows you to plan investments, but the real test of competitiveness will remain the execution of EU rules and the ability to quickly launch capital in research, infrastructure and commercialization.
See also: Google takes clicks and changes the rules of the game. Your strategy may not survive the search revolution
Ultimately, it is worth emphasizing that some elements of the contract are to be clarified in the coming weeks, and the political “reset” does not eliminate the risk at the interface between trade, taxes and data.
Whether the tariff exceptions will permanently cover the entire spectrum of semiconductor and pharmaceutical equipment, as purchasing and investment obligations will be enforced, and whether the data transfers will withstand court inspection, decide on real predictability for technology on both sides of the Atlantic. For now, Europe and the US have bought time.
Author: Grzegorz Kubera, Business Insider Polska journalist
