Moscow gains a new enemy. This region moves away from Putin at an express pace. Expert: Russia is losing influence
Agil Rustamzade: There is no tension or fear in the Azerbaens. What's more, there is not even an expert discussion on the likelihood of Russia's attack. Nobody calls for concessions to Moscow to avoid war.
In addition, Azerbaijan has a strategic ally – Turkey. If necessary, Türkiye can easily send dozens of F-16 fighters to Azerbaijan in a very short time.
Azerbaijan is much more important to Turkey than Russia. And if the influence of Russia weakens in Azerbaijan, this process will automatically spread to Armenia and Georgia. This means that the current position of Baku serves the strategic interests of all three southern Caucasus countries.
“Azerbaijan is ready to respond to unfriendly steps”
Alijew's meeting recently took place [Ilhama, prezydenta Azerbejdżanu] and fodder [Nikola, premiera Armenii] Without intermediaries in Abu Dhabi. Is there a belief in the Azerbaijan society that without Russia conflicts are resolved faster?
Of course, this is what is discussed in this tone. I often say that Karabach was a trap for Armenia, but also for Azerbaijan.
The President of Azerbaijan Ilham Alijew (on the right) and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Paszynian (on the left) meet in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, July 10, 2025.Azerbaijani Presdency / Handout / Anadol Via Getty Images / Contributor / Getty Images
In Karabakh, Azerbaijan lost the war not to Armenia, but with Russia. Our people understood this perfectly, although little was said about it internationally, when Baku's relations with Moscow were still good.
As for the meeting in Abu Dhabi, it was a good first step after 30 years of conflict. Of course, one meeting is not enough to solve all problems. However, President Alijew said that the text of the peace treaty “is ready”.
This means that many issues have already been discussed and decisions have been made, although peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia are not a process that can be analyzed on the basis of open sources.
Will Azerbaijan help Ukraine in the military sphere?
All this time Azerbaijan indirectly helped Ukraine. Azerbaijan is the only country in the post -Soviet area, outside the Baltic States, which builds a school in Ukraine, rebuilds cities and energy infrastructure, provides fuel. Whether this will turn into military assistance will depend on Russia's further steps.
If Moscow is conducting hybrid attacks, he will try to resurrect separatism into the territory of Azerbaijan, I do not think this scenario is impossible. Azerbaijan is ready to respond to unfriendly steps.
Privin Russian bloggers raise the topic of “possible clashes on the border with Dagestan”. What does Azerbaijan society think about this?
In the historical memory of Azerbaijan there are quite little positive moments associated with the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union or the Russian Federation. Our society wants Azerbaijan to be respected and seen as a country with an established position.
I am convinced that if the government decides to move away from the Russian Federation and strengthen relations with Turkey, it will only meet with support and approval.
When it comes to attempts to use separatism: ethnic lezgini live in the northwestern part of Azerbaijan. At various times, during the exacerbation of relations with Azerbaijan, Russia tried to destabilize this region, fueling separatism.
In 30 years we had time to understand and stop this process. Considering that 45 ethnic groups live in Azerbaijan, this is not a topic that can “explode”.
Continued article under video material
“Russia loses its influence on the Caucasus”
And attempts to repress the Azerbaijan diaspora in Russia?
The Azerbaijan plane was shot down over the threatening over half a year ago and since then the opinion appeared in society that Russia will no longer treat Azerbaijan as before, so this country should be left.
Considering that Russia loses its influence in the southern Caucasus, I think that the Azerbaijan diaspora will also lose its influence and possibilities in Russia.
Azerbaijan will sue Russia regarding a shot down aircraft?
The case is still pending. In Kazakhstan [w którym 25 grudnia 2024 r. doszło do tego tragicznego zdarzenia] The services deal with this with the participation of international organizations.
Everything will depend on the results of this investigation. Ukraine donated documents regarding the shot down Malaysian Boeing to the International Criminal Court. So there is such a precedent.
But I think it will be the final step on the side of Azerbaijan. Most likely, the complaint will be submitted to the International Arbitration Court or a specially convened court.
The surname of the person who pressed the “Start” button on the portable anti-aircraft missile complex “Pańcyr-S”, whose rockets hit the plane, is already known in Bak. However, Russia still does not provide us with documentation regarding the investigation.
