“Elon finally woke up.” Musk is fighting to save Tesla before Trump
Elon Musk donated over $ 250 million. [901 mln zł] for the election of President Donald Trump. In return, he got a bill that can cost Tesla billions.
Trump's “Great, Beautiful Act” threatens the key source of Tesla's profits, abolishing the regulations that allow the manufacturer of electric cars to sell emission loans worth billions of dollars.
The Act deepens the crisis of a company that is already struggling with a decrease in sales and loss of tax breaks for electric vehicles. The legislative caused a violent reaction of Musk.
While Trump worked this week to push through the law in Congress, Musk called her “abomination” and threatened to attack the legislators who supported her, hostile donations, and even create his own political party.
Trump retreated that “without a subsidy, Elon would probably have to close the company and return home to South Africa.”
The escalation of the conflict threatens the key elements of Musk's business empire and puts republican legislators in a situation where they must choose between the US president and the richest man in the world.
“All family quarrels ultimately concern money,” said Trevor Train, a technology entrepreneur from San Francisco, who during the first term of Trump was the ambassador in Austria.
– This one seems not to be different … Billions of subsidies versus hundreds of millions in the primaries.
A great threat to Tesla
Musk publicly argued against the fiscal act, claiming that it would significantly increase the US deficit. However, the threat to Tesla is also a key reason for his opposition.
Trump promised to eliminate three parallel emission systems in the US in the name of reducing car prices – including one program run by the Environmental Protection Agency regarding greenhouse gas emissions and the other in California based on the sale of electric and hybrid cars.
His “great, beautiful act” applies to the third system, federal norms “of average fuel consumption by enterprises” (Cafe). This program imposes penalties on car manufacturers whose vehicles do not achieve goals in the field of fuel efficiency, and those who do not broadcast any emissions, rewards with loans to clean air, which can then be sold to competitors focusing on fossil fuels, in order to balance their penalties.
The sale of loans under Cafe and similar systems in other jurisdictions is a significant and growing part of Tesla's profits.
In the first quarter, Tesla's addiction to these systems was huge: if not for the sale of loans, which increased by 35 percent. up to $ 595 million [2 mld 145 mln zł]exceeding the total net income of Tesla of $ 409 million. [1 mld 474 mln zł]the company would suffer a loss.
Last year, the company recorded $ 2 billion $ 800 million. [10 mld 99 mln zł] revenues from the sale of regulatory loans around the world, compared to $ 1 billion $ 800 million. [6 mld 492 mln zł] in 2023, which is 39 percent her annual net income of $ 7.1 billion. [25 mld 610 mln zł]. Since 2015, the company has earned over $ 11 billion. [39 mld 678 mln zł].
The draft budget law annul the Cafe, setting fines at zero level. As the company familiar with the company's internal debates claim, Tesla is afraid that as a result traditional car manufacturers will largely stop buying loans.
“If there is no punishment for a fraud, there is no reason to buy conformity loans,” said Dan Becker, director of the Safe Climate Transport Campaign campaign at the Center for Biological Diversity. – I'm not sure how expensive these will be [zmiany] Compared to the damage that Musk caused Tesla, becoming Tweedle Dee [to fikcyjna postać wykreowana przez autora “Alicji w Krainie Czarów”, Lewisa Carrola, która tworzy parę z identycznym Tweedle Dumem. W kulturze angielskiej to synonim osób, które wyglądają i zachowują się tak samo] Trump and Parias.
US President Donald Trump (P) and Elon Musk during a press conference at the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, USA, May 30, 2025.
Tesla does not provide profits from regulatory loans broken down into regions or three American programs. However, a person familiar with this matter claims that on average up to three quarters [zysków] It came from the United States, and the remaining part of similar systems in the European Union and Asia.
The influence on Tesla's financial results will not be immediate, because the company often negotiates many years of contracts with competitors, the expiry of which will take some time. However, some of these contracts contain clauses regarding force majeure and changes in the provisions that may cause them to annul the Trump Act – says one of the people.
Tesla will continue to earn on foreign loans. She recently signed a contract on “combining” emissions with Stellantis, Ford, Mazda, Subaru and Toyota. UBS analysts say that it can ultimately be worth over EUR 1 billion [4 mld 246 mln zł]if Tesla cash her long list [firm kupujących kredyty emisyjne] in the field of carbon dioxide.
In the United States, there is not great hopes for restoring federal emission loans for Trump's term. However, California filed a lawsuit against administration in connection with its actions aimed at closing the program in which Tesla has by far the largest balance of loans.
– Loan trade will take place at a certain level until it is certain … [ale] The market has lost long -term stability – said one of Tesla's employees. – Trump worked so quickly and so fiercely that the whole programs could simply disappear.
Tesla did not answer the request for comment.
Not only emission loans
The car manufacturer has more to lose as a result of Trump's actions. In addition to the sale of cars and loans, the company also produces its own batteries, runs a network of about 2,600 electric car charging stations in the United States, produces sunny and commercial and home battery sets.
Almost all these companies will lose significant federal support or tax relief; Only subsidies for energy storage remain. The abolition of the federal tax relief in the amount of $ 7,500 will be particularly harmful. [31 tys. 850 zł] for the purchase and leasing of some electric vehicles.
In response to Musk's attacks, Trump suggested that the so -called government efficiency department (dog), which Musk himself founded, should cancel the federal SpaceX and Tesla contracts.
Tesla also warned that the unpredictable customs policy of Trump and the trade war with China would disturb its supply chain, limit access to the necessary materials and make it retaliate due to Musk's connection with the administration.
“This is a terrible policy and a devastating blow to Tesla's financial results,” said former executive director of Tesla. – It's not just about Cafe in itself – it's all about all: customs, consumer loan in the amount of $ 7,500, tax breaks for producers, charging and sun relief for households.
“Elon woke up, but it's too late a day”
“Elon finally woke up, but it's too late a day and a dollar too little,” he added.
It seems that the billionaire has a limited possibility of counterattack in defense of his empire, even despite the huge financial resources for future donations for political purposes.
In May, Musk gave up the controversial function in the Doge, consisting in limiting federal bureaucracy. The tensions between Musk and the White House regarding customs and the tax law intensified in June, when Musk strongly criticized the X signed by the president regarding internal policy.
The relations between Trump and Musk were characterized by dramatic changes. Last week, Eric Trump, one of the sons of the president, said the Financial Times that he was “enchanted” by Musk, calling him “one of the greatest geniuses of our time.”
However, this week, Musk tightened his opposition when the law was waiting for the final vote in the congress, where the advantage of the votes was minimal.
The billionaire said that everyone who voted for “the greatest increase in debt in history should let his head out of shame” and “[że] He will lose next year's primaries, even if it is the last thing I will do on this land. “
Thomas Massie, one of the few Republican members of the Chamber of Representatives, who opposed the act, thanked Musk for “financial assistance in continuing my mission as an independent voice” – after Trump promised to remove Massyi from his position.
However, few Republicans supported Musk. 50 out of 53 Senators of the Republican Party voted for the Act, and the decisive vote was cast by vice president JD Vance.
Many Musk allies from the business world have also supported a law that extends tax breaks for natural persons. James Fishback, investor and former Doge advisor, created a super pac [Super Political Action Committee — Super komitet Akcji Politycznej]to counteract Musk's political donations.
– Preventing tax increases is absolutely necessary – said Keith Rabois technology investor, who, together with her husband Jacob Helberg, donated over $ 2 million. [ponad 7 mln] At Trump's campaign in 2024, Helberg was nominated by Trump to a high position in the State Department.
On Thursday, the bill passed the final vote in Congress and will go to the desk of the triumphant president.
Train, appointed by Trump, said: “I have great respect for Elon, but I think Trump has a greater advantage here.”
Additional information: Kana Inagaki from London.
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