“In accordance with the available forecasts, inflation in the coming months will decrease below the upper limit of deviations from the NBP inflational purpose (the target is 2.5 percent, and the upper limit is 3.5 percent – editor's note). Taking this into account, in the Council's opinion, it became justified to adjust the level of NBP interest rates” – we were read in the Wednesday communication interest rates.
We would like to remind you that according to preliminary GUS data, inflation in June amounted to 4.1 percent.
These “available forecasts” about which the MPC wrote come from the latest NBP projection, i.e. an inflation report, the content of which was disclosed on Friday at 9. How will prices change in Poland?
NBP inflation report. What about prices?
According to the projection – prepared by assuming unchanged NBP interest rates and taking into account the data available until June 9, 2025 – The annual price dynamics will be with a 50 % probability in the range of 3.5-4.4 percent. in 2025 (compared to 4.1-5.7 percent in the projection from March this year).
Additionally In 2026, inflation in the range of 1.7-4.5 percent is expected. (compared to 2-4.8 percent before) and 0.9-3.8 percent in 2027 (compared to 1.1-3.9 percent earlier).
NBP inflation forecasts
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NBP
“CPI inflation after reaching its highest level in the first quarter of 2025 (4.9 percent y/y), in Q3, it will return to the deviations from the NBP inflational target, but in Q4 will increase again (up to 3.6 percent y/y). In accordance with the results of the projection – assuming percentage rates of NBP The dynamics of consumer prices to the compartment (1.5-3.5 percent) will last in the first quarter of 2026.” – we read in the report.
The NBP notes that the path of economic activity in the country and abroad forecasted for the coming years indicates that in the years 2026-2027 CPI inflation will be under the growing influence of the weakening pace of salary growth, which due to market mechanisms affects a certain delay on price shaping.
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NBP / Press materials
Disinflation will also be conducive to a moderate increase in import prices associated with low inflation in the environment of the Polish economy and a reduced level of energy raw materials prices on global markets.
“In the further horizon of the projection, the decrease in price dynamics will also be supported by low demand pressure reflected in the decrease in the demand gap, which will again take negative values” – we read.
Comparison of inflation forecasts from the NBP
Inflation in 2025 is to be at the level of 3.9 percent, in 2026 it should drop to 3.1 percent, in 2027 – to 2.4 percent. These are lower values than the NBP assumed before.
“Information and data that came after closing the March projection affected a significant reduction in inflation in 2025, with a smaller scale of correction in 2026-2027”-indicates the bank.
Comparison of inflation forecasts
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NBP
He explains that a lower implementation of this indicator in the first quarter of 2025, largely caused by weight update in the CPI basket, contributed to the decrease in price dynamics in 2025. In the same direction, the reduction – compared to the assumptions of the previous prognostic round – the prices of energy raw materials on world markets while strengthening the zloty relative to the dollar. This change affects the decrease in domestic fuel prices the fastest, but also delay also affects the remaining energy carriers, food prices and base inflation by reducing production and distribution costs.
In the years 2026-2027, the influence of these factors on CPI inflation will expire, which will be conducive to the dynamics of economic activity slightly higher than in the March projection.
