How much will we pay for the euro? PKO BP forecasts a course in the third quarter

According to experts of PKO Bank Polski, at the end of the third quarter of this year we will pay 4.20 PLN for the euro, and for the dollar – PLN 3.56. This would mean the strengthening of the Polish currency, which – according to the bank – will support the prospects of strong economic growth in the country in the years 2025 – 2026.

The bank also pointed out that the reasons for the forecast increase in the zloty value could be a cautious attitude of the Monetary Policy Council regarding the further loosening of monetary policy. Polish currency – in their opinion – will also be conducive to an external environment, including a weaker dollar in international markets. The brake of stronger zloty value is to be a deepening commercial deficit and the negative effects of American duties on European goods.

“The fundamental force of the zloty, as in the first half of 2025, will be based on a solid growth of Polish GDP, which according to PKO BP forecasts is to reach 3.3 percent in the current and 3.5 percent next year” – emphasized the analysts. They added that this increase is to be driven by consumption and acceleration of investments, which will be increasingly financed by EU money. “It is worth emphasizing that according to the latest OECD forecasts from June this year, Poland will have the fastest GDP growth rate in Europe in 2025, which should attract investment capital,” they noted.

PKO BP also expects that in the third quarter of this year the reference rate of the National Bank of Poland will fall by 25 base points up to 5 %, and CPI inflation will fall below 3 percent. rdr. The European Central Bank at this time – according to PKO BP – will keep its feet or reduce them by 25 PB.

The bank assumes that in the coming months the global environment for currencies from emerging markets will be moderately positive or “at most periodically slightly negative”. According to experts, a positive impact on the economic situation of Europe will soon begin to exert stimulation programs, including the German fiscal package, which are the main trade partner of Poland. “Faster in terms of forecasts from the beginning of this year, economic growth in Europe may intensify the diversification of global portfolios of investors in the benefit of assets denominated in euros at the expense of assets in Dollara, which should be indirectly used by Poland, including gold” – they assessed.

As they emphasized, the risk is the final shape of the EU-US trade agreement, which should be finalized in August. “Any lack of agreement may result in an increase in risk aversion and market variability, which are unfavorable to the currency of developing countries,” they added.

According to PKO BP experts, the weakness of the American currency is to result, among others from the FED interest rates they forecast in the second half of the year and from “gradually decreasing advantage of the US economy over the rest of the world.” They forecast that the increase in real GDP in the United States will slow down to 1.4 percent. in 2025 with 2.8 percent last year. (PAP)

JLS/ MALK/