Analyzing the reasons for the crisis in NATO, the analyst notes that the re-election of Trump in November last year and the “deliberately insulting” speech of US Vice President Jay Di Wans at the Munich Security Conference in February caused serious anxiety in the alliance.
Trump sometimes seems frankly hostile to NATO, but previous US leaders also threatened to leave the Alliance or simply looked forward to the day when Europe could take care of itself, the Columnist emphasizes.
The current NATO crisis is not only the work of Trump's hands, the alliance is now undergoing tests of four crises that have deeper consequences than the “destructive influence” of the current US president, Brands writes.
- The safety crisis caused by the continuous aggression of Russia in eastern Europe. Since 2022, NATO reacted, supporting the struggle of Ukraine for survival; The alliance expanded, including Finland and Sweden, and its members increased defense costs. But the leaders of the European defense departments are afraid that if the Russian Federation wins in Ukraine, this may experience NATO military plan, possibly in the Baltic countries.
- Preparation crisis. After the Cold War, NATO became more geographically ambitious and acted “outside his zone”, in the regions from the Balkans to Afghanistan, the journalist notes. But the “dividends” of the world, which lasted a quarter of a century, led to the fact that the Alliance became less military secure, Brands writes. He gives an example: until the mid-2010s, German troops trained with brooms instead of weapons. NATO created a “cocoon” of security, which allowed the countries to disarm, states Columnist.
- Priority change crisis. Brends explains that Europe was the main priority of Washington during the Cold War, since it was a decisive region that fluctuates both economically and military, in the Soviet-American confrontation. However, since then, the Center for Economic Heaviness of the World has moved east. The main zone of military danger is now not the Fulda passage (the territory in Germany, which during the Cold War was considered one of the main directions of the possible invasion to the west of countries of the Warsaw Treaty), and the Taiwan Strait, the journalist notes.
- Crisis of trust. Europeans always bothered whether the United States would be nearby when it would be important, Brands writes and asks: “How could these fears not intensify in the Trump era?”
Trump is not original when it questiones NATO value, Brands writes. But Europe, he adds, never had to deal with the US president who would threaten to seize the territory of the allies or leave them in case of attack.
Economic disputes are a normal phenomenon, but not a single American president “has yet jeopardized world prosperity so groundlessly and did not seem much happier in the company of aggressive autocrats than with long-standing friends-democrats,” the journalist notes in his article.
Trump has already arrived in the Netherlands, where the NATO summit is taking place. As BBC informed June 23, European allies hope to convince him not to withdraw troops from the continent. According to an unnamed high-ranking diplomat, relations with Europe have been so tense from the moment Trump returned to the White House-because of trading tariffs and other problems-that a few weeks ago no one was even sure that he would appear at this summit.
ABC News adds: the main question with which Trump went to the summit is to increase defense costs for all member countries from 2% of their gross domestic product to 5%. According to ABC News, Trump also has several other goals regarding the summit, in particular, the call to the alliance members to restore their industrial capacities for the production of critical minerals and weapons, as well as bilateral meetings with world leaders to confirm devotion to allies.
The media notes that the summit takes place after many NATO leaders have already visited the White House for bilateral meetings to discuss key issues and get Trump's favor. On the way to the Netherlands, Trump questioned one of the basic principles of the alliance – Art. 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty of Collective Defense, it is quoted by ABC News. There are “many definitions” of this article, said Trump and did not give a direct answer to the question of commitment to the principle of mutual defense.
This NATO summit is actually the revival of the alliance, which Trump sharply criticized during his first presidential term, ABC News believes. The NATO-Square, whose opinion is given by Brands, believe that the US exit from the Alliance would force Europe to “gather forces and become an equal partner in protecting the democratic world.”
