The United States air blows on Iran could affect global economic growth, warned Kristalina Georgieva, the general director of the International Monetary Fund.
The price of oil increased after US attacks on Iran Photo Shutterstock
Georgieva said that the IMF closely monitors energy prices, warning that an increase in oil price could have a domino effect on the global economy, The Guardian reports.
“There may be side and tertiary effects”said Georgieva. “Suppose that turbulence affects the growth prospects of the big economies – then we will see a chain reaction, with negative revisions of the global growth prospects.”
The problem of the Strait Ormuz
The Iranian Parliament voted on the weekend to close the vital navigation channel in the Ormuz Strait, as reprisals for the attack launched by Donald Trump. Hormuz passes a fifth of the world oil consumption, the strait connecting the Persian Gulf, Oman Gulf and Arabian Sea.
Closing the strait could trigger an oil supply shock, which would lead to increased energy, increase inflation and slow down the global economy.
The price of oil initially increased by over 5% Sunday evening, reaching a maximum of the last five months, of $ 81.40 (60,58 pounds), but it returned slightly later. On Monday morning, Brent crude oil increased by 1.2%, reaching $ 77.94.
According to new estimates of the Goldman Sachs investment bank, the price of oil could reach $ 110 barrel if the oil flow through this critical artery would have reduced half a month, and then it would be 10% lower for the next 11 months.
“Economic suicide”
Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, warned that the closing of the strait would be a “Suicide economic” For Iran and urged China to exert pressure on Tehran.
“I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to contact them in this regard, because they depend strongly on the Hormuz Strait”Rubio told Fox News.
“I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to contact them in this regard, because they depend strongly on the Hormuz Strait”Rubio told Fox News.
Holger Schmeding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, said the Ormuz Strait represents “The main economic risk of pursuing”but argued that an interruption of energy flows in the Gulf region “It seems unlikely”as export limitation would be a high risk strategy for Tehran.
The risk of reprisals
Analysts from the Brokerage Company RBC Capital Markets warned on a “clear and present risk of energy attacks”, which could come from the militia supported by Iran in Iran, operating near the energy installations in Basra. However, they added that it could take days or even weeks until Iran's reaction became clear.
“First of all, we were away from the hasty idea that” what was worse has passed “at this moment”they said. “President Trump may have successfully executed a type movement to relax”, but a wider extension cannot be excluded. It is possible to be in the matrix of Rumsfeld's' known 'unknown' in this Middle East military conflict. “
Global scholarships were affected
The global scholarships were deprived of direction Monday. In the UK, the FTSE 100 index has decreased by 0.2% in the first hours of trading, and BP and Shell oil companies were among the few that have registered increases.
In Asia, stock markets had mixed developments: the Nikkei 225 index of Japan decreased by 0.1%, and S&P/ASX 200 of Australia lost 0.4%. In contrast, the CIS 300 index from China increased by 0.3%, and Hang Seng of Hong Kong earned 0.5%.
Gold, considered traditional a stable asset in periods of volatility, decreased by 0.4% months, reaching $ 3,354.03. The precious metal has already reached several records this year, against the background of global uncertainty and the search for safe shelters by investors.
