“Revenge for huge humiliation”. Americans are afraid of entangling in a “crawling mission”. Iran can pull Donald Trump into a trap
Trump may hope that he will be able to stop at the precise strokes. However, whether the United States will be drawn into a long war depends on Tehran's reaction to American attacks.
Iran has a number of possibilities when it comes to retaliation. Iranians can escalate tension in the Persian Gulf region, attacking the US allies in the Middle East and blocking the sailing on the most important export trail of energy raw materials in the world. In such a scenario, Americans may feel forced to intervene, risking gradually pulling in a full -scale war with Iran.
It is possible that in the coming weeks we will witness a series of retaliatory attacks from Iran. The US government may then fall victim to the phenomenon known in military jargon as a “creeping mission”, i.e. a situation in which limited military operation acquires its own dynamics and gradually goes beyond the originally assumed scope.
The Iranian leader Ali Chamenei believes that he should not succumb to external pressure, because showing weakness would put him in an even more difficult position and in the face of subsequent demands that would inevitably weaken his position. On the other hand, Chamenei is not an irresponsible gambler.
According to Karim Sadjadpour, an Iranian expert from the American Think Tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, if you sum up direct investments and economic costs of sanctions imposed on Iran, the Iranian nuclear program cost over $ 500 billion. (over PLN 1 trill of PLN 851 billion, counting at the current exchange rate).
– The Iranian nation did not obtain nuclear energy or deterrent in return. How can the Iranian regime take revenge for this huge humiliation? Sadjadpour asks.
– Has to [Chamenei] Base the tension between the instinct of survival and the need to oppose your enemies – adds the expert.
According to Sadjadpour, many retaliation options that Chamenei could order, would have the character of suicidal attacks.
– They can attack the US embassies and base, attack oil installations in the Persian Gulf, mines the Strait of the Ormuz or launch the rockets towards Israel – but the regime would not survive the response to such a movement – says Sadjadpour.
Trump has already warned Tehran. “Every revenge of Iran towards the United States of America will meet with a reaction that significantly exceeds what we saw tonight” – wrote the US president on Truth Social.
“Either there will be a room or Iran is waiting for a much larger tragedy than the one he has experienced in the last eight days,” added Trump. Tehran should remember that the United States has “many goals” in Iran.
“It's not that simple”
Opponents of the American impact on Iran painted the worst scenarios before it started. Democrats and right -wing insulationists in the US warned against the policy of changing the regime, which led to a great disaster in Iraq. Meanwhile, US President Trump emphasized that it is only about the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program – using weapons, which only the United States has.
Trump made such an attempt. On the night of Saturday to Sunday, the American armed forces began strokes on Iranian nuclear facilities in Natanz and Isfahan, and above all to a deeply buried factory in the mountains, uranium enrichment factory in Ford.
However, to conduct an active policy of changing the regime and overthrow power, it is necessary to take the country with land forces.
The highest leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran Ali Chamenei
Israel has no will nor the possibility for this, and for the movement of Maga Trump, sending American soldiers to a foreign country is the personification of the wrong role of a world policeman from the past, from which he definitely distances.
“Iran is not Libya. Ani Iraq,” writes military expert John Spencer, director of the Institute of Municipal War at the American Military Academy of West Point. “The current campaign has a clearly defined and legal purpose.” It is not about changing the regime, it is not about building a nation, it is not an endless war. “The mission is the complete and irreversible destruction of the Iranian nuclear program.”
In satellite photos from Sunday 22 June you can see the destruction around the facility in Ford, which is particularly difficult to completely eliminate. On the slope of the mountain where the building was built, rocks and soil were apparently blown up in several places. The back of the mountain looks different than in previous photos. Where there was brown rocks before, now you can see gray debris. Photos come from Planet Labs PBC and were compared by the AP news agency with previous satellite photos.
New photos suggest that during the attack the United States actually used bombs that destroy bunkers to destroy the object deeply hidden underground. Iran has not yet provided any specific information on damage inside the nuclear object. However, Trump said that the most important elements of the Iranian nuclear program were completely destroyed.
Can the US President announce that the mission has been carried out and the United States end their involvement in the conflict? It's not that simple.
Military expert Franz-Stefan Gada said in a post on X that at a time when precise strokes belong to a standard arsenal of war resources, there is a “tendency to perceive such actions as a strategy-i.e. conducting attacks for various purposes in the hope that it will force the rapid end of fighting on favorable conditions, instead of having a long-term and coherent concept that goes into greater goals, which is included in greater goals. strategic “
“Now there is time for peace,” Trump wrote on Truth Social after attacks. However, it is not likely that the Iranian regime is ready to just return to diplomacy. The Iranian authorities will want to react to attacks, if only to achieve a minimal deterrent effect, which will prevent further impact on the country.
