NIK warns against the growing debt of Poland. “May threaten the financial stability of the country”
“In 2024, there was an increase in the size of the State Treasury debt, public debt calculated according to the national definition (state public debt, PDP) and EU (debt of the sector of government and local government institutions, EDP) by 21 %, 21.3 percent and 19 percent, respectively, and 19 %. Maintenance in the following years of such debt dynamics The Chamber of Control in the “Analysis of the state budget and the assumptions of monetary policy published on Tuesday” in 2024 “.
The Supreme Audit Office also stated that the amount of debt of the Treasury, public debt and debt of the sector of government and local government institutions also increased in relation to the gross domestic product. The size of this relationship at the end of 2024 was 44.7 percent, respectively, 44.3 percent and 55.3 percent
“The debt of the Treasury and the state public debt does not include the debt of funds served by Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego or the debt of the Polish Development Fund. With the increase in the debt of the listed entities difference Between the size of the debt of the government and local government institutions and the size of state public debt increased at the end of 2024. up to PLN 400.2 billion, which accounted for 19.9 percent. public debt calculated according to EU principles” – NIK said.
NIK controllers assessed that the use of two significantly different people in public debt “does not serve to maintain public finance transparency.” In addition, according to the Supreme Audit Office, “misleads public opinion” because the size of state public debt does not present the real financial situation of the state.
“Until 2019, the ratio of public debt calculated according to the EU definition to the gross domestic product was in Poland higher by about 2-3 percentage points in relation to the relationship calculated in accordance with the national definition. This was mainly due to the debt of the National Road Fund and enterprises included in the sector of government and local government institutions. From 2020, the difference between two size of debt gross increased significantly and at the end of 2024 it reached 11 percentage points ” NIK said.
Public debt and deficit. So much will be in 2025.
The debt of the government and local government institutions (EDP), which was one of the elements of the fiscal criterion from Maastricht, at the end of 2024 amounted to about PLN 2 trillion PLN 12 billion. According to the latest forecasts of the Ministry of Finance transferred to the European Commission, EDP public debt in nominal terms is expected to increase in 2025 to PLN 273 billion, which would mean another record.
If it were assumed that this year Polish GDP would increase in nominal terms (without correction with inflation) at the same pace as in 2024 (i.e. by about 6.3 percent), then Public debt indicator to GDPbased on new MF forecasts transferred to Brussels, in 2025 it would amount to 58.7 percent, that is, it would increase from 55.3 percent GDP recorded in 2024. The earlier forecast of the Ministry of Finance assumed that at the end of 2026 it could already reach 60.9 percent, and in 2027-2028 oscillate around 61.2 percent.
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Public finance deficit in nominal terms, which in 2024 increased to record -breaking in history of almost PLN 240 billion from PLN 180 billion in 2023, in 2025 – according to MF plans – to grow by another PLN 9 billion, to PLN 249.1 billion. This would mean a slight decrease in the deficit index to GDP to 6.3 percent. with 6.6 percent in 2024
Key thresholds exceeded
If The state maintains a public debt higher than 60 percent. GDP (and the debt does not decrease at a satisfactory pace, i.e. the difference between the debt and the 60 % ceiling must be reduced by one twenty per year within three years), the European Commission may apply the so -called excessive deficit procedure. Another condition is Country's public finance sector deficit exceeding 3 percent
The permissible amount of this indicator is also determined by Polish provisions. Two debt levels are key: 60 percent and 55 percent GDP. The first results from the Constitution (Article 86)and is also confirmed by the Public Finance Act. “State public debt may not exceed 60 % of the value of the annual gross domestic product” – provides art. 74 of the Public Finance Act.
In this act we also have a 55 % threshold. debt to GDP. Its exceeding is obliged by the government, among others To propose the budget for the next year without a deficit, freezing wages in the budget sphere and limiting the valorisation of pensions and pensions. He must also present a recovery plan. In addition, if 60 percent were punctured, the government has a month to present a recovery program. Local governments must also tighten the belt.
