A year ago, Emmanuel Macron dissolved the French parliament. What can surprise this time? Politico forecast
In politics, as in life, you should always expect an unexpected one. Politico has prepared a list of thoroughly examined, extremely serious and not so bizarre forecasts about what can now happen in France.
In a situation where the minority government of France is paralyzed because of the parliamentary deadlock, taking another risk seems tempting. However, Macron publicly ruled out this possibility in the next few months.
Le Pen folds the weapon
After fighting his own father for power, the extreme right -wing leader of the National Union Marine Le Pen may now be moved to the side track by her successor, Jordan Bardella, in the final phase of her career.
Le Pen promised not to give up despite the conviction for embezzlement, which threatens her opportunities to start in the presidential election in 2027. The politician would then face a very difficult question what to do next after his life devoted to politics.
Probability: 0.5
Macron folds a weapon
After the catastrophic early elections last year, the voices calling for the President of France to resign. There was speculation that He will follow in the footsteps of Charles de Gaulle and give up in the middle of the term.
Macron said, however, that he is not going anywhere and so far it seems that this will be the case.
Probability: 0.5
Macron's wife folds a weapon
It seems that Brigitte Macron is fed up with being the first lady.
Probability: 1
Emmanuel Macron with his wife Brigitte in Nice, June 8, 2025.
Macron jumps into the Seine
Only to swim, of course. Before the Olympic Games in Paris, politicians unprofessional announced that they were going to swim in the Seinets, the iconic Paris River, where several professions were to take place. Several of them kept their promise, with greater or less enthusiasm. The President of France promised that he would do it too, but so far he has not decided on this step.
Probability: 2
French Prime Minister … remains in the position
It has been some time since the French prime minister has lasted in his position for more than six months, but at the moment no one really wants to be in Francois Bayrou.
Probability: 4
Probability in the period when the budget is determined: 1
French judges condemn Elona Musk
France has already sentenced one technological tycoon for illegal activities related to the application he conducts, and on X a lot of suspicious content is published. Will Elon Musk be next?
Probably not. (We remind you that France boasts a functioning, respected independent judicial system).
But if it happened, which is very unlikely, in the Elysee Palace and wherever he is currently [były europejski komisarz] Thierry Breton, a little schadenfreude would probably appear [radości z cudzego nieszczęścia]taking into account Musk's attacks on European democracy and technology regulations – not to mention the fact that he laughed at Macron's marriage problems against journalists during a visit to the oval office.
Probability: 1
Donald Trump offers the purchase of New Caledonia
The US President will not stop in Greenland when he learns about the deposits of nickel in New Caledonia – the raw material necessary for the production of stainless steel and battery for electric vehicles.
The political situation in this French overseas territory in the middle of the Pacific Ocean is complicated, so who knows if Trump will offer help to his good buddy Macron, buying a “beautiful” New Kaledonia.
Probability: 3
French youth rebels after the ban on using social media
This is one of Macron's obsessions and one of the few topics that there is a consensus among French political parties. The French government took decisive actions to include this issue in European policy and warned that in one way or another it would ban the use of social media for children under 15 years of age.
This will certainly meet with a positive reception of today's youth. Teens love when they are told what to do.
Probability: 3.5
