The results of the presidential election are a shock. Five key matters after exit poll

According to Exit Poll, Rafał Trzaskowski wins very much from 50.3 percent. votes, at 49.7 percent support for Karol Nawrocki. Such a result is not yet sure who will eventually be in the Presidential Palace. It is already known, however, that Polish politics will change irreversibly.

1. Jarosław Kaczyński will be 81 in the next presidential campaign

Even if ultimately Karol Nawrocki loses the election, it is difficult to expect Jarosław Kaczyński to lose power over his party. The politician will continue to control PiS, most likely at least until the next parliamentary elections. However, the passing time has been evidenced by the fact that we are dealing with a great breakthrough in the party fighting for power in Poland for nearly a quarter of a century.

The defeat of the Law and Justice candidate would mean one thing – even if Jarosław Kaczyński's party wins parliamentary elections, he will not return to full power until 2030. Even if this camp took over the presidency in the next election, Jarosław Kaczyński will be 81 years old. It is difficult to imagine that until then he maintains full control over the party and – in the case of electoral victory – a camera of power. In the case of losing Karol Nawrocki, PiS, which we knew, with chances to return to full power under Kaczyński's leadership, would end.

2. A moment of truth for the government of Donald Tusk

The defeat of Rafał Trzaskowski will put the future of the government of Donald Tusk on the blade of the knife. Turning in internal conflicts, he was not able to implement a number of his own promises – even the issue of housing policy, as well as the announced changes in ideological matters. “At around” attempts were made to establish their own order in the judiciary, the prosecutor's office, other state institutions, as well as in the case of abortion.

Rafał Trzaskowski's victory would cement the government team and allow for a legislative offensive. The offensive under the leadership of the Civic Coalition, because its Sejm allies were painfully verified in these elections. Donald Tusk is still close to the huge power, but these plans may thwart the final triumph of the PiS candidate.

The victory of Karol Nawrocki will mean that Tusk can quickly not only say goodbye to strong leadership in the country, but even with governance itself. The Presidential Weto projects hanging over government projects, the Confederation growing into strength, some coalition partners potentially looking for “security” in the event of a possible change in power – with all this will have to face the coalition office. And if PiS got after the victory of the survey of the momentum (as it was in 2015 after the success of Andrzej Duda), the pressure could be even greater. This is an unlikely scenario, but it cannot be ruled out. Currently, the Sejm advantage of the coalition is 242 MPs – “hangs” on 12 parliamentarians. This is a big advantage, but time will show whether safe.

3

Never in the history of the Third Polish Republic “to the right” from PiS had such a wide support. For many years it was marginalized due to the undisputed leadership of Jarosław Kaczyński on this side of the political scene.

This condition is long -outdated. From the condemnation radical, Sławomir Mentzen entered the first league of Polish policy sitting to talk about the future of Poland. Grzegorz Braun, who was sentenced to infamy after a scandalous action with a fire extinguisher, won the support of over 1.2 million people.

PiS will have to react to this movement of moods. And he will do it, most likely also moving to the right – to eurosceptic, anti -immigrant and anti -acclimatic positions. This will also have its repercussions in the case of economic policy. Both Mentzen and Braun preached far more liberal economic views than what Jarosław Kaczyński used to go to the election. PiS who is recently a kind of exception against the background of the European right because of its prosocial demands may now be more towards a more free market approach.

A government camp can also turn right – even if some of the announcements were only election rhetoric, it can be maintained. The government will enter the parliamentary election campaign 2027. And against this background, potential voltages with the left are possible, which is a kind of prelude to the open conflict with the Together party.

However, this tendency in the Civic Coalition and Law and Justice can – at least partially – stop the victory in the presidential election. The strong ID of one of the candidates will probably slow down the rapid changes in the doctrine of his grouping.

4. Recognition of the election

Experts, polls, finally the politicians themselves agreed – the winner of this year's presidential election will win minimally. And this in combination with chaos in the judiciary can be a real explosive mixture – perhaps the presidential election in Poland has never had to face such a huge problem of undermining the election procedure itself. Recognizing the result of the election by losing the side will be a real test for the Polish condition – still young – democracy. Pimpling the result and thus the ID of the new president can lie not only on internal policy, but also the position of Polish authorities in an uncertain geopolitical situation.

5. The future of Trzaskowski and Nawrocki

Today, one of them has become one of the three most important politicians of the country – although the President of Warsaw has probably “caught” only in the top ten, and Karol Nawrocki was not on the political stage at all. Both of them achieved impressive results, which is significant – higher than their leaders, when they ran in the presidential election. Is this the beginning of spectacular political careers that will affect the history of Poland? In the case of the winner for sure. However, it is not worth deleting a loser – getting more votes at your name than all your own grouping in 2023 is a very large political capital for the future.