If we have a Polish “swing state”, it is the province. Łódź. Karol Nawrocki won the round of elections – he got just over 32 percent, by 1.9 percent. than his main competitor. This result was quite similar to the nationwide – let us remind you that the KO candidate won 31.36 percent in the whole country, and Karol Nawrocki supported by PiS – 29.54 percent. In any case, in no other voivodship the difference between the main candidates was so small.
There are real bastions in Poland – in West Pomerania or in the province. Lubuskie over 40 percent chose the KO candidate. In turn, Karol Nawrocki won over 42 percent in the province Podkarpackie. Against the background of these regions of the province Łódź is extremely balanced. Similarly, it was during the presidential election in 2015 and in 2020.
In the United States as “Swing States” are the states that are neither definitely republican nor clearly democratic – even Ohio, Michigan or Pennsylvania are mentioned here. In the last presidential election, however, Łódź was elected a PiS candidate – although the advantage was small here. The situation in parliamentary elections was more complicated. The district of Łódź and the surrounding area was chosen in 2023 by definitely KO. But the rest of the districts voted for PiS.
In the event of great polarization of the whole country, it is worth looking at the province. Łódź. Theoretically, Karol Nawrocki has a greater chance of winning, especially when you consider Sławomir Mentzen there in the first round of 13.8 percent, and Grzegorz Braun – over 6 percent. But Rafał Trzaskowski can still gain a lot there. The KO staff counts especially on the mobilization of its voters in large cities – Łódź, Piotrków Trybunalski and Skierniewice. Rafał Trzaskowski won everywhere.
This is how “average Poland” votes
In the province It is worth paying attention not only because the previous elections were heavily even there. In social and economic terms, the province is a bit “middle class” on the map of Poland. And this is the voices of the “Middle Polish” will decide who will be in the palace.
The average salary in the enterprise sector is in the province. Lodz just over 8.1 thousand zloty. This is much more than in such a strongly supporting PiS Podkarpacie, where it is about 7.5 thousand. zloty. Even more distance is divided by Łódź to the province. Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship, where the average salary is 7.2 thousand. zloty. At the same time, far from Łódź to the richest voivodships – e.g. Mazowieckie, where the average salary in enterprises is over 10.7 thousand. zloty.
Also in terms of unemployment, Łódź is such a Polish “middle class”. In April it amounted to 5.6 percent. – When it was 5.2 percent throughout the country. The situation in the province Therefore, Łódź is much worse than in Greater Poland, where unemployment is barely 3.1 percent. But at the same time much better than in Podkarpacie, where this indicator is as much as 8.6 percent.
This, moreover, connects the Polish “Swing State” with the American ones. The richest states – like California or New York – are actually always behind the democrats. The poorest – like Mississippi or Louisiana – is a Bastion of Republicans. The battles are therefore primarily about these “medium” states.
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That the province Łódź remains in the “middle class” and cannot advance to the league of regions, it can take on the relative economic weakness of the capital, i.e. Łódź. The average salary in companies in Łódź is just about PLN 250 higher than in the entire province. For comparison – in Poznań the difference in salaries relative to the rest of the province is as much as 2.9 thousand. zloty! Of course, each stick has two ends. On the one hand, Łódź has no economic locomotive, the richest regions – but on the other, the standard of living is relatively even there.
The richest Polish cities or regions have recently turned left – in Poznań or Warsaw, Adrian Zandberg and Magdalena Biejat achieved relatively very good results. This trend in the province Łódź is not so clear. Although in Łódź Zandberg he got 6.6 percent. Głósów, and Biejat – 6.4 percent
There is a lack of analysts who believe that voters from big cities will determine the fate of the second round – who did not go to the polls as willingly as in 2023 – and often sought alternatives to candidates from the main parties. However, the “middle class” among regions, i.e. the province, may be of key importance. Łódź with their 1.8 million voters. And especially about the fate of voters, he can decide to keep around 540 thousand. residents of this province, who did not go to the urns in the first round.
See also
- It is 2030. Karol Nawrocki is fighting for re -election. This is what Poland looks like [POLITICAL FICTION]
- It is 2030, Rafał Trzaskowski is fighting for re -election. This is what Poland looks like [POLITICAL FICTION]
Author: Mateusz Madejski, Business Insider Polska journalist
