Ah these adults today. Psychologist: The essence of the demographic problem in Poland lies in education
The essence of the demographic problem in Poland lies not in economic or social barriers, but in raising a young man – said psychologist Dr. Szymon Grzelak, president of the Institute of Integrated Prevention. He emphasized that young people need to be supported in the desire to have children.
The expert in an interview with PAP pointed out that religiosity is a factor associated with greater desire to have children.
“For 10 years, as an Institute of Integrated Prevention (IPZIN), we alert that the essence of the demographic problem in Poland is not in economic or social barriers, but in raising a young man. In recent years, we observe in Polish teenagers a decrease in the desire for having a family and children in adult life – and this is a decrease from a level that was already low. In our opinion, if we want to achieve a replacement. generations (even on a classically administered average level of 2.1 child per pair), we must already support them at the stage of growing up in developing dreams in this direction, because the modern culture of such desires does not support ” – said the expert.
Dr. Grzelak noticed that the research of teen desires about having children in the future 10-12 years ago showed that if in 100 percent. They realized their dreams, we would get a fertility rate at the level of about 1.8. “During the Covid -19 pandemic period, the indicator fell to a level of about 1.5. In turn, in the latest research from the 2023/2024 school year (n = 21 265) this indicator was at 1.63 – higher among boys (1.71), and lower among girls (1.54)” – calculated the expert.
“If we have dreams in a group of 11-17 at 1.63, then realistically, in the future, when the dreams of this generation verify the realities of adult life, they will achieve a much lower fertility rate – maybe at 1.2. This means further deepening of the demographic collapse” – said the expert. He noted that achieving a simple replacement of generations would be possible if teen desires regarding future fertility were at 2.5 “.
He emphasized that in the latest research (2023/2024) the fertility rate in boys' dreams in the range of 11-17 years is not only higher than in girls, but remains at a similar level in 11-year-olds, 14-year-olds or 17-year-olds. However, among girls, the desire to have children (and their dream number) decreases with age. “Eleven -year -old fertility in their dreams is at 1.7 and seventeen -year -olds at the level below 1.4” – pointed out Dr. Grzelak.
In his opinion, changes among female are largely “from contemporary mass culture, which promotes self -realization, and at the same time are a side effect of equality culture and policy, supporting non -family aspirations of women, which are difficult to reconcile with dreams of motherhood, especially multiple.” “We can therefore expect few and fewer children from year to year,” he said.
The psychologist said that in the light of IPZIN research published in the report “How to support young people in an unstable world?” (2023) From among many studied life goals of young people, an indication of only one is associated with a better mental condition, less use of psychoactive substances, less undertaking risky behaviors. “This goal is +Happy family life of children +” – he pointed out.
In the latest IPZIN studies from the 2023/2024 school year, this goal indicated 27 percent. youth. “It is less frequently indicated than +making a professional career +, which declared (40 percent of respondents), +acquiring a large property +(33 percent) or +permanent love, friendship +(48 percent)” – noted Dr. Grzelak.
He noted that sensible and long -term life goals are conducive to mental health. “Family and children are a life goal, which is long -term, and at the same time in its center is the good of others” – he added.
He admitted that there is also the opposite relationship – if someone has a poor mental condition, it is more difficult for him to dream of positive long -term things. “If he feels bad in his life, if it is hard for him, then I do not want to appoint others” – summed up the expert.
“The analyzes of the Institute of Integrated Prevention show that an important factor of reluctance to have children is the lack of personal contact with marriages whose love is an example for the studied teenager,” said Dr. Grzelak.
In research conducted by the Institute since 2002, a permanent decrease in the percentage of young people who saw an example of marriage, whose love is a positive reference for them, has been observed. “In 2002 it was 66 percent, in 2011 – 60 percent, in 2021-2022 – 48 percent, and 2024 it was 46 percent.” – said the expert.
“In our opinion, in preventive measures, you should create an opportunity for direct contact with good, loving marriages. They can be, for example, grandparents – representing the older generation or loving marriages in the further family or among friends,” said the psychologist.
According to the CSO data, the population in Poland at the end of 2024 fell by 147 thousand. compared to 2023 and amounted to 37 million 489 thousand. This means that for every 10,000 39 people lost the population. The population in Poland is decreasing from 2012.
According to the Central Statistical Office, in the near future there should be no significant changes ensuring stable demographic development. This is indicated by a very low level of birth, a high number of deaths, as well as a lower number of marriages than in 2023.
In recent years, changes in the population in recent years are primarily influenced by a natural increase, which remains negative from 2013. In 2024 – as Gus said – the number of births was lower than the number of deaths by almost 157 thousand. This means that the natural growth factor (per 1000 population) was -4.2 and decreased by 0.6 percentage points. compared to last year.
Magdalena Gronek (PAP)
MGW/ ABA/ MHR/
