The price of gases on the TTF stock exchange in the Netherlands, relevant to Europe, has been maintained for several weeks around 35 euros/MWh. In Romania, the gas is traded, at present, with about 200 lei/MWh (40 euros/MWh). These quotations are influenced by the maintenance work in Norway, the main gas deposit being still stopped. Thus, the gas deliveries from Norway are disturbed. The level of gas storage in the EU are at a capacity of 45.3%, far below 67.5% in the same period last year, according to GAS Infrastructure Europe data.
“At the same time, geopolitical tensions persist, as hopes for a peace agreement with Ukraine fades, Russia's position reducing short-term flow prospects,” a Trading Economics analysis shows.
Variations around 35 euros/MWh could be maintained by the end of the year, a study by EPG, an independent think-tank specialized on energy policies, shows. EPG has analyzed what will be the impact of eliminating ceilings on consumers and economy. Return to the competitive market will involve an increase in energy prices, in some cases, even a doubling of the current invoices, EPG shows.
According to the legislation in force, the price of electricity is capped until June 30, 2025, and that of natural gas until March 31, 2026.
The price of gas in Romania
The price for the domestic consumer will approach the value of 331 RON/MWh (0.33 RON/KWH) after applying the tariffs and taxation, the estimation being based on the weighted average price of natural gas on the wholesale market at 2024, the EPG study shows. The value is slightly over the current ceiling of 310 RON/MW (0.31 RON/KWH).
In December 2024, in Romania there were just over 4.53 million domestic consumers and about 220,000 non-casual natural gas consumers. Of the housewives, about 88,500 were included in the category of vulnerable consumers.
During 2024, the domestic consumption of natural gas had a weight of 35% (34 TWH) while non-casual consumption represented the difference of 65% (63 TWH). If the price of
Angro transaction of natural gas would be maintained at the value of 151 RON/MWh (weighted average price for 2024), it would mean that the price for the final consumer is 331 RON/MWh
After applying the regulated and tax regulated tariffs.
This value is slightly over the ceiling of 310 RON/MWH regulated by the state.
Uncertainties on the gas market
However, in the case of natural gas, the uncertainty regarding the evolution of prices is considerably higher, the EPG study shows. Powerard contracts, both on the Netherlands Stock Exchange (TTF) and on the Romanian goods stock exchange, indicate an upward trend of the price of natural gas, located sensitive over the values capped at national level. In the case of the Netherlands stock exchange, there is currently a price with over 10 €/MWh higher than the one pricing the domestic consumers in Romania.
Last year, Romania had the third lowest gas price for domestic consumers in the EU with an annual consumption of up to 55.5 MWh/year. Thus the price of gas paid by consumers
Casans from Romania was 47% lower than the EU average and up to two thirds than the highest price, in Sweden.
At the national level, the price of gas for domestic consumers was capped at 0.31 RON/KWh (310 RON/MWh), respectively 0.37 RON/KWh for a number of non-casual consumers, with all taxes included. At the same time, the market price of gas intended for domestic consumers was capped to 150 RON/MWh for the first three months of the year, later reduced to 120 RON/MWh.
According to EPG, these estimates have included values corresponding to the capped prices, and with the religion of the wholesale markets are expected adjustments. It is difficult to anticipate the evolution of the price of natural gas, both on the regional markets and on the main trading platform at European level, the TTF scholarship in the Netherlands, given that during 2024, the prices fluctuated between 26-57 €/MWh.
