OSW expert: Trump's “golden dome” will not protect the USA quickly, but will provoke Russia and China
The construction of a state -of -the -art anti -cancer shield announced by President Trump will strengthen the defense of the US, but will not quickly ensure complete resistance to hostile shells, for this the response of rivals – said Jacek Tarociński, an OSW safety and defense analyst.
President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday plans to build a “golden dome” – a shield to capture hostile rockets flying towards the United States “even if they are fired from space.”
According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump wants to priority to treat those elements of the project that can be implemented for the end of his term.
“Americans have always wanted to be completely safe at home. This is a kind of obsession with American strategic thoughtespecially after the development of strategic nuclear weapons and intercontinental missiles, he shaped their sense of security, “said in an interview with PAP Jacek Tarociński, an analyst at the Security and Defense Team of the Center Washington.
“Since then, with the exception of the Civil War, no armed conflicts with other countries have been fought in American territory,” Tarociński emphasized, adding that Americans want to stay that way, therefore they have long been considering building an impenetrable anti -missile shield. PSuch an ore appeared during the presidency of Ronald Reagan, as part of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) initiative. SDI was to be a missile defense system based on space technology, which was to protect the country from a large -scale nuclear attack. Although he was never completed, according to Sovietologists, he contributed to the final defeat of the Soviet Union.
To the system “Star Wars” – Because this is how the program from Reagan was called the media in the 1980s – President Trump also established on Tuesday. “By building a golden dome we will finish the work, which President Reagan started 40 years ago. This will be the end of a rocket threat to the US,” the American president emphasized.
Tarociński admitted that the “Star Wars” program was a huge American success, but not because it was implemented. In the 1980s, the construction of a system containing interceptors placed on satellites, capturing Soviet ballistic missiles coming from space, was not technically possible. “That's why this project was turned very quickly into a communication operation, which was to force the Soviets to the arms race. The Russians got on it,” said the expert and added that this time the “golden dome” would not be created so quickly.
40 years later, the United States is ready to put on this project – at the beginning – $ 25 billion, but in 20 years it will cost up to $ 500 billion, and according to Congressional Research Service, $ 800 billion.
“At the current budget, to finance this program, the American armed forces would have to decrease. I personally think that this program, to the extent that President Trump expects, will not be created in 4 years,” said Tarociński and added that it may fail even in the perspective of a decade.
In his opinion, the “Golden Dome” will, however, bond systems already existing under the tutelage of space forces in order to improve anti -cancerous defense. The dome can strengthen the resistance of American installations in the Pacific, e.g. on the island of Guam, where the American base is located.
“Over the past seven years – both during the first Trump administration and in the time of President Biden – invested there in the air and missile defense of all levels and therefore I think that” Golden Dome “will be tested and developed there” – emphasized Tarociński and added that the Guam base is crucial from the perspective of the American projection of strength in Western Pacific and at the same time Chinese ballistic missiles.
According to Tarociński, the “Golden Dome” will also be a program for the development of new technologies and new missile capture means. The expert pointed out that Lockheed Martin already announces the possibility of starting a project to develop new, cheaper capture shells. As Tarociński admitted, it is also unofficially known that according to LM, you can create interception shells placed in orbit like satellites.
Tarociński also reminded that the Americans had already had a missile shield during the presidency of George Bush. Its elements are located in Romania and in Poland, but above all in Alaska.
“The hundredth rocket defense brigade is stationed there, which has land bullets capable of capturing ballistic missiles, whether fired from China or Russia,” said the expert.
The base in Alaska, however, is not, according to Tarociński, sufficiently effective. “It is extremely expensive and has about a few dozen – of course the exact number is secret – interception shells, meanwhile,
To capture one ballistic missile, you need to shoot two, three, and sometimes four capture shells. In the case of a full -glass nuclear war, the opponent will definitely use hundreds of intercontinental missiles, not individual pieces, “the expert emphasized.
The creation of the “Golden Dome” announced by President Trump, is – according to Tarociński – also the answer, mainly in the propaganda dimension, at Putin's threats, delivered before the war in Ukraine.
“The President of Russia has already boasted of various types of bullets that were to bypass American defense systems and hurt the United Statesanother thing that I doubt these Russian systems. They were rather a propaganda shell and a bogey, “said the expert.
In the opinion of Tarociński, “Golden Dome” is also a message addressed to the internal American market, “which is quite heavily attacked by Russian disinformation about the possibility of destroying America with Russian rockets.”
As Tarociński argued, American work on the dome, and thus “searching for their own strategic advantage over rivals” will not remain unanswered.
“Russia – once the Soviet Union – and China are working on them. So we will have a strategic race in the strategic dimension. For now rhetorical, because these are technically advanced issues and expensive enough that we are unlikely to see the fruits of these programs over the next 5 years” – summed up Tarociński. (PAP)
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