Economists of Pekao: reviving the slowest since 2000

The current revival is very free – PO and Q1 data show that this is the slowest revival in the 21st century – the economists of Bank Pekao wrote in the commentary to GUS data. They added that the growth of GDP in the first quart looks good against the background of other EU countries, only Ireland developed faster.

On Thursday, the Central Statistical Office gave the rapid respect of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025. It shows that during this period economic growth was 3.2 percent. In an annual basis, while in the fourth quarter of 2024 it was 3.4 percent.

“A delicate GDP slowdown (from 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of last year) was telegraphs well in advance by disappointment in monthly data from the beginning of the year,” wrote the economists of Bank Pekao in a commentary on GUS data. -“On their basis, we assume that the mentioned 3.2 percent y/y contributed to solid (but still disappointing) acceleration of investments, from -6.9 to 1.1 percent y/y and lower dynamics of private consumption (2.2 percent y/y after an increase of 3.5 % quarter earlier) net export (which is strongly suggested by yesterday's payment balance data) ” – they also wrote.

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The Central Statistical Office also stated that in terms of the quarter to the quarter of the GDP in the first quarter, it increased by 0.7 percent. After a growing increase by 1.4 percent Quarter earlier. The economists of Bank Pekao said that “we are not fans of this record.”

“However, it has two considerable advantages. First of all, it allows historical comparisons – here the current episode of revival is invariably very free – after the first quarter it is the slowest revival in the 21st century. Secondly, it gives you a chance to compare international comparisons (this record is preferred by Eurostat). Our query indicates that in the first quarter of Poland will only be ahead 10.9 percent

They added that in terms of the height of the quarter to the quarter Poland can also be overtaken by Croatia. They stipulated that whether this would actually happen, “remains an open issue.”

“3.2 percent y/y is a slightly weaker result than we assumed at the beginning of the year (3.5-3.6 percent y/y). Risk for our forecast of year-round GDP (4 percent) therefore increases. The loss in investment demand at the beginning of the year, however, is relatively easy to catch up, so we do not submit a weapon in this field. We have a greater problem. dealing primarily with uncertainty and we are waiting for its clarification, “said the economists of Bank Pekao. (PAP)

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