CEO of a large bank: Poland is new Germany. Our country “avoided a trap and quietly became the star of Europe”
Peter Bosek, CEO ERSTE Group Bank claims that “Poland is new Germans”. However, interesting analogies do not end there. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that this year Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Poland will exceed Japan's GDPafter taking into account the purchasing power. In 2005, Polish income according to this indicator was 50 percent. medium EU. Meanwhile, the IMF estimates that in 2025 it will increase to 85 percent.
European stock exchanges have not been so well for years. In conversations with experts who have been involved in stock exchange analysis for years, there is a note of disbelief. It is hard for them to remember when foreign investors have recently devoted so much attention to Europe. In terms of dollars, the European Stoxx 600 index increased in 2025 by 16 percent, while MSCI World [globalny indeks giełdowy] only by 3 percent
Mysterious is that The fastest growing stock exchange in Europe She escaped many investors. Everyone knows that share prices in Germany soared up (actions of weapons producers have achieved dizzying increases), but Poland's success is even more amazing.
Until recently, Polish economic progress did not significantly affect the country's attractiveness on the stock market for international investors. In the years 2010–2020, share prices were more or less at the same level per dollars. During the Covid-19 pandemic and crash in 2022, they followed trends in other markets.
Then, in 2023, the Poles began to become similar to the Germans also in a different way: by postponing populist, interventionist and anti -EU Law and Justice (PiS).
In its place they chose investors friendly to the government led by Donald Tusk, a former chairman of the European Council. PiS approach to the markets included, among others The appointment of his man's President of the Central Bank of Poland, who then reduced interest rates during an election campaign in 2023, despite the fact that inflation was 10 percent.
At the same time, PiS controlled by PiS, maintains fuel prices below the market level. The relatively liberal policy of Tusk's government made Poland much more attractive to investors. So far, EUR 21 billion has been obtained (about PLN 90 billion, counting at the current exchange rate) EU assistance to fight Pandemia, which was previously suspended due to PiS interference in the judiciary.
“Poland should use in the near future”
Thanks to this, Polish actions are ready to participate – and more than that – in this year's economic recovery in Europe, because investors are again considering their excessive allocations in America and wonder where they can further place their funds. Or maybe they will do it on a medium -sized stock exchange of a rich country that improves its growth prospects thanks to large fiscal stimuli and determination to reinforce?
Panorama of Warsaw (illustrative photos)
The reasoning that prompted many to choose Germany also applies to Poland. In 2025, the country plans to allocate 4.7 percent. GDP for defensei.e. more than any other NATO member and more than 2.2 percent. in 2022
So far, most of these funds have been allocated to the import of equipment that Poland sent to Ukraine after Russia's invasion, so this did not significantly affect GDP growth. However, the situation will change soon, because Poland also acquires production and service skills. The government announces that 50 percent funds allocated to technological modernization will be spent on equipment produced in Poland. This should speed up economic growth.
Mai Doan from Bank of America points out that in the near future Poland should benefit from Germany's economic growth, which is to accelerate thanks to the increase in spending on infrastructure and defense. She estimates that the higher economic growth of Germany translates almost entirely into the Polish economy, because it means greater demand for Polish exports, including capital goods and military equipment.
However, the rate of inflow of money to Polish shares is limited because the market value of the WIG index is only $ 520 billion. (over 1 trillion PLN 964, counting at the current exchange rate). Nevertheless, 40 percent This amount is shares of financial companies that are well prepared to draw profits from a strong economy.
The market remains attractive cheap. Share prices are only ten times the expected profits of companies this year, compared to 15 throughout Europe and 22 in America. For now, the growth of the Warsaw Stock Exchange has not aroused much interest. However, it should not be assumed that this situation will persist.
