Talks are underway between the US and China. The statistical American will pay more for everything – from shoes to smartphones
Such high duties practically choked on two -sided trade. According to the National Retail Federation forecasts, in the second half of the year, the total volume of imports to the US will fall by at least 20 percent, and imports from China may burst by up to 75-80 percent. At the same time, Goldman Sachs warns that the increased import cost will conquer an important measure of inflation in the United States up to 4 percent. By the end of 2025, this means that The statistical American will pay more for everything – From shoes to smartphones – before any agreement is reflected in shelf prices.
On the other side of the Pacific, the duties hit Chinese factories and exports. In April, the value of shipments to the US has shrunk to $ 33 billion.one -fifth less than a year ago, and PMI for industry reached the weakest level in 16 months.
Beijing injects further stimulation packages, because despite the policy “Made in China 2025” labor markets in sectors focused on export They feel more and more orders from across the ocean.
Trade war of the USA – china. Important talks in Geneva
At the Geneva table, both sides sit down with a hand pressed against their own pocket, but also under electoral and economic pressure. In the USA, the first recession quarter from 2022 coincided with the presidential campaign and the federal reserve He warns that before he begins to lower his feet again, he must assess whether the tariffs will cause a one -time price jump or a longer inflation wave.
The International Monetary Fund has already cut off the US GDP forecast for 2025 to 1.8 percent. And warns against the risk of staging.
There are several output scenarios. The most ambitious It assumes that both sides will reduce the tariffs below the 50 % threshold indicated by the economists a few steps.restoring the predictability of supply chains and opening the way to a wider system with intellectual property or digital trade.
It seems more likely half -measure: the US reduces the rate to 80 percent. – As Donald Trump suggested – and Beijing will answer in proportion. Trade partly returns, but companies still carry production where customs duties do not threaten immediate return.
At the worst case, the talks will not bring anything, technological sanctions will expand the dispute, and the markets will react panic reminiscent of shocks after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.
Investors are waiting with decisions
Not only the content of American magazines and Chinese ports depends on the result of these negotiations. If the duties remained at the current level, the IMF expected that the increase in world exchange will slow down to 1.7 percent, the lowest from the time of the financial crisis. Now Global clothing and electronic companies transfer orders to Mexico, Vietnam or Indiawhich strengthens their currencies and attracts investments, but also raises unevenness.
At the same time, trade fragmentation makes it difficult for central banks to fight inflation, because instead of cheaper, specialized production from Delta Yangty, the world gets more expensive components from several continents.
Investors know that Even a foggy de -escalation declaration can increase stock indexesbecause it reduces the risk of another spiral of duties and retorts. But until a message about the real schedule of tariff reductions flows out of Geneva, the awareness remains that the trading war between the two largest economies in the world is not a local dispute, but a global variable. And it depends on her growth rate, inflation path and capital flow direction for the coming years.
