2025-05-07 16:36
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2025-05-07 16:36
In the opinion of the Monetary Policy Council, in May it was justified to adapt the level of NBP interest rates due to the data coming in, including the lower current and forecast inflation, the lowering of wage dynamics and weaker data on the conjunction – said in a message after the May meeting of the MPC.
“Considering the information, including lower current and forecast inflation, departing wage dynamics and weaker data on conjunction, in the Council's opinion it became justified to adjust the level of interest rates of the NBP. Further council decisions will depend on the information on the perspective of inflation and economic activity” – wrote.
According to the MPC, the factor of uncertainty – in the MPCs – remains the formation of demand pressure and the situation on the labor market in the following quarters, the level of administered energy carriers and further fiscal policy activities.
The source of uncertainty is also the formation of inflation in the world, including due to changes in the commercial policy of the main economies.
“NBP will continue to take all necessary actions to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability, including primarily for the permanent return of inflation to the NBP inflational target in the medium period,” it was written.
The MPC repeated the wording from previous messages that the NBP may use interventions on the currency market.
The reason also inflation
Taking into account the preliminary CSO data on inflation in April (4.2 percent of RDR), the NBP estimates that in the previous month inflation also decreased after turning off food and energy prices, with the still increased dynamics of services prices.
“The earlier increase in the administered prices of energy carriers, as well as the still increased annual dynamics of food prices and non -alcoholic drinks translate into a still increased level of CPI inflation” – added.
In the opinion of the MPC, the increase in salaries is still at a high level, but the data from the enterprise sector signal the lowering of wage dynamics.
Referring to economic activity in Poland, in the opinion of the MPC, available data signal that the annual dynamics of economic activity in the first quarter of 2025 was probably lower than expected and slightly lower than in the fourth quarter of last year.
“In March this year, the annual dynamics of retail and construction and assembly production were negative, while industrial production increased in an annual basis. Low unemployment and a high number of working people, although employment in the enterprise sector in March 2025 was lower than a year earlier” – wrote.
The MPC is also looking beyond the borders of the country
Assessing the situation abroad, the MPP stated that in the euro area the annual GDP dynamics in the first quarter of 2025 – as in the fourth quarter of 2024 – amounted to 1.2 percent, and in the United States, economic activity in the first quarter of this year. It decreased, which translated into a decrease in annual GDP dynamics to 2.0 percent.
“In both economies, inflation is shaped near the inflation goals of central banks. The prospects of activity and inflation in the world are subject to uncertainty, including in connection with changes in commercial policy,” he added.
The Monetary Policy Council at the meeting on On May 6-7, 2025, it reduced all NBP interest rates by 50 pb, including reference to 5.25 percent, as market expectations.
From October 2023 to April 2025, the MPC maintained a reference rate of 5.75 percent.
On Thursday, May 8 at 15.00 a press conference of the NBP President Adam Glapiński will take place. (PAP Biznes)
Tus/ Ana/
