“I was right.” A valued political scientist has long predicted what is happening from the USA now
Although Donald Trump has only been in power for three months, he has significantly limited, and in many cases he completely suspended development and humanitarian aid. He tries to finish financing Radio Voice of America and other aspects of the so -called soft power. The American authorities weaken the North Atlantic Alliance with their statements and apparently want to withdraw from Europe.
So does America give up its leadership role in the world? Brooks tells “respect” that this is not the case yet. He emphasizes, however, that the words “for now” are of great importance. Years ago, he predicted in which direction the United States would go. Now he says what will happen next and what Europe should start working now.
The US approach to relations with other countries is very specific depending on the situation. – Currently, the view is dominated that daily diplomacy is either not useful or is not as needed as previous presidents thought – he explains.
The difference between a businessman and a statesman
According to Brooks, which currently specializes in the American “global strategy” and the impact of economic factors on security issues, Americans do not want to completely leave Europe yetbut they want to negotiate much more favorable conditions for their military presence. Trump also tries to isolate the United States economically, imposing high duties, which he finally suspended at the last minute.
Instead of building long -term diplomatic relationships, Trump believes that when he has to cooperate with someone, he creates a system of conditions, for other countries to work with him because it pays off. Finally, the president describes himself as dealmaker And he considers negotiating contracts as his strength. His first bestseller from the 1980s, “The Art of the Deal”, was devoted to this.
Brooks emphasizes, however, that there is a fundamental difference between being a businessman and the statesman who concludes a contract. – Businessmen do not have to think about whether the contract for the construction of a skyscraper in New York will somehow change the city. But when you are the president of the United States, you know that certain contracts, even if they bring short -term benefits, in fact they can change the world in an adverse way – the professor worries.
According to a political scientist Trump stands out among American presidents at least since the end of World War II radical position on protectionism. Especially in terms of tariffs, the president went very far, as recent events show, even further than some of his party colleagues would wish.
Trump first imposed duties on almost all countries in the world, including Member States of the European Union, and then hung them for 90 days when the markets began to break down. He explained this phrase saying that He did not expect people to start to panic so muchand the situation will get worse so quickly. American companies also had a lot of pressure on him, which quickly felt the effects of a deteriorating situation.
Brooks emphasizes thatChaos has been caused by the current functioning of the White House. – The process of making decisions in the White House is now completely different from everything we have known so far, including Trump's first term – he explains.
Donald Trump and Elon Musk in the Oval Office of the White House, Washington, February 11, 2025.
Earlier, a similar proposal would be discussed in detail not only among the president's advisers, but also at the level of departments and congress. What are the costs related to this? What are the advantages? How can this be implemented? The decision would be made only Based on a detailed analysis. However, only very few people knew in the current situation about the new plan. What's more, even Jamieson Greer, a representative of Trump for trade, was surprised by him – he answered congress questions about the introduction of duties and was apparently not previously informed about their suspension.
Asked if Trump will actually introduce duties again after a three -month break, Brooks of course does not give a clear answer. Among other things because It is not clear why Trump actually wants them.
– This is for many reasons, often very contradictory. For example, he says that he wants duties to bring companies back to the USA. But at the same time he claims that he wants duties to increase revenues. If he actually managed to do it as the first and many companies returned to the USA, revenues from the duties would disappear. Which of these things is trying to do? In fact, he can only have one of them – he illustrates illogical policy with a specific example.
What's more, the situation can be influenced by both the previously mentioned domestic companies that will exert pressure on the White House and foreign actors, including the European Union who will try to save the situation. Trump claims that the main reason for the need to impose duties is unfair behavior of other countriesregardless of whether they buy little from the US or have too high barriers to international trade. Therefore, it is possible that he will actually try to use duties to negotiate better conditions, and then he will not actually impose them.
“In the interest of America, there is peace and security in Europe and Asia”
Trump usually defends his foreign policy, saying that the United States is constantly used by others and that others are rich in it. But Do the United States ever give someone anything for free? – Maybe it's about foreign help – guesses Brooks, who in his 2016 book “America Abroad: The United States' Global Role in the 21st Century” clearly showed that the current US situation is very satisfactory.
– After 1945, the United States tried to keep peace in Asia and Europe out of generosity, but simply because There is peace and security in Europe and Asia in the interest of America. And also as little nuclear weapons in these regions – he explains. In other words, the interests of the US and their allies sometimes overlap. So do some of their activities benefit other countries? Brooks admits yes.
The President of Ukraine Wołodymyr Zelnski, US President Donald Trump and US Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office of the White House, Washington, USA, February 28 2025.
– But did we do these things specifically to bring benefits to other countries? To be honest, I can't remember too many. Nobody put the pistol to the United States and did not force America to commit global commitment. We made this decision ourselves. And my research shows that it was a very wise decision – he adds.
In the above -mentioned book, Brooks and his colleague William Wohlforthe predicted what would happen if the United States began to withdraw from the world. He claimed that the world would become more dangerous and less wealthy for many reasons, e.g. because many countries would seek nuclear weapons. At the time of publication, the book was a sensation in this field – other American scientists presented Arguments for the greater or less withdrawal of the United States from the world And they did not raise too many issues of negative consequences of these changes.
However, now this forecast is beginning to meet. Poland is considering obtaining nuclear weapons [chodzi o objęcie francuskim systemem odstraszania nuklearnego i dążenie do udziału w programie współdzielenia amerykańskiej broni atomowej (Nuclear Sharing)]Germany armor. Russia is becoming a much greater threat to Europe than it was just a few months ago. Brooks, being aware of the paradox, admits that although as a scientist he is happy that his work is appreciated, it As a citizen of the world, he hoped that he was wrong.
He has similar feelings in connection with his recent research on the independence of Europe, which he conducted with his colleague Hugo Meijer from the University of Sciences PO in Paris. In the article entitled “Illusions of Autonomy”, published in 2021 in the scientific journal “International Security”, they describe Eight aspects in which the US is currently contributing to the defense of Europe. From conventional troops and weapons, through logistics, training, nuclear weapons, to command, intelligence and situational awareness on the battlefield.
Donald announces customs tariffs in the Rose White House garden. Washington, April 2, 2025.
Europe should start working on it now. According to Brooks, the most accessible and easiest way to start is to use conventional forces, i.e. strengthen the army in both military and technical terms.
– If Europe tried to replace the US in all areas at once, they would eventually be left behind. It would be better for Europe, If she fully completed work on conventional troops and weaponswhose provision of the US is most worried and where Europe can be best independent – he emphasizes, adding that if American soldiers are no longer needed in Europe, the United States will be able to safely continue to provide other aspects that are key to the defense of Europe.
As you know, Trump is deeply rooted in the feeling that Europe simply uses the United States for its defense, even though it does not pay for anything. Let us remind you often quoted that in 1987 he paid for one -page advertising in “The New York Times”, in which He complained that US allies were only taking advantage of the situation And they don't pay as much as you should. And now he is surrounded by people like Elbridge Colby, Trump's man in the Pentagon who do not want the Americans to be so interested in Europe as such.
Brooks emphasizes that the key role that American forces can and should play in the future is to support, not to replace European military abilities. He adds that Only the Russian attack on Ukraine showed how important this role is In such aspects as interview, logistics and setting goals on the battlefield. – To be honest, until [inwazji na] Ukraine I underestimated how good the United States is in logistics and how important it is – he admits.
