Romania is distinguished by economic pessimism and expectations of fiscal tightening, according to a study by a fiscal and legal consulting firm in several countries in the region, including Romania.
Romania, marked by economic pessimism and expectations of fiscal tightening
“The most pessimistic expectations They are those of the respondents in Romania, where almost half of the answers refers to a expected decrease in the volume of transactions and only one in four respondents believes that the value of the investments will increase”, The Real Estate Confidence Survey for Central Europe 2025 is shown in the Deloitte Real Estate Prividence.
According to him, in Romania the forecasts are opposite to those in Poland and the Czech Republic, almost 60% of the respondents anticipating a deterioration of the economic climate in the country and only 14% considering that it will improve.
Ask what expectations, for next year, about the availability of lending for their country, 46% of Romanians interviewed said they are expecting a damage, compared to only 20% of Poles and 7% Czechs.
Ask what expectations, for the following months, from the fiscal climate in their country, 70% of the Romanians interviewed said they are waiting for a worsening, compared to 37% Czechs and 28% Poles.
Romania, at risk of recession
In fact, CFA Romania analysts announced on Tuesday that, against the backdrop of recession in Romania and the uncertainty in the economy, the macroeconomic trust indicator continued to be reduced.
“Against the backdrop of recession, and uncertainty in the economy, the trusted indicator, and in particular the current conditions have continued to reduce. Consistent with this evolution are the reduction of the anticipations of economic growth for the current year as well as the increase of the anticipations regarding the budget deficit ”said Adrian Codîrlașu, president of CFA Romania.
The macroeconomic trust indicator of the CFA Romania Association decreased in February, by 3.8 points to 36.6 points. This situation was mainly due to the strong decrease in the component of current conditions. Thus, the component of current conditions decreased by 10.4 points, to the value of 45.9 points. At the same time, the component of anticipations remained relatively constant (-0.5 points).
The anticipated inflation rate for the 12 -month horizon (March 2026) was located at the average value of 4.85%.
Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, over 94% of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months, and the rest of a course stagnation. Thus the average value of the anticipations for the 6 -month horizon is 5,0306 lei for one euro, while for the 12 -month horizon, the average value of the anticipated course is 5,1015 lei for one euro.
Regarding the evolution of prices of residential properties in cities, 39% of participants, anticipate a stagnation in the next 12 months, while 50% anticipate a decrease. Also 72% of participants believe that current prices are over-evaluated, and 28% are correctly evaluated.
The deficit of the state budget forecast for the year 2025 increased compared to the previous exercise at the average value of the anticipations of 7.4% of GDP.
The anticipations of economic growth for the year 2025 are, decreasing from the previous exercise, at the average value of 1.1%.
The public debt calculated as a percentage in GDP is anticipated to increase to 59% in the next 12 months.
