Inflation light in the tunnel. Santander news of a significant fall, but he will wait for him

Another significant decrease in inflation is very likely in July, because another negative base effect will appear related to the increase in energy prices in July 2024 – assessed the analysts of the Santander bank in the commentary to Tuesday GUS data.

The Central Statistical Office announced on Tuesday that the prices of consumer goods and services in March 2025 increased yields. by 4.9 percent, and compared to the previous month – by 0.2 percent Earlier, in quick respect, the Central Statistical Office reported that CPI inflation in March amounted to 4.9 percent. rdr. and 0.1 percent MDM.

“We expect the inflation rate to start from April – initially it will decrease to a range of 4.2-4.3 percent yaws, in which it will remain until the middle of the year, and then in July it will clearly fall below 3.5 percent yaws, where in our opinion it will remain through most of the second half of the year, in December, in December, in December he will return to 3.5 percent – Economists of the Santander bank assessed.

According to their forecasts, the Monetary Policy Council may resume foot reductions, “probably from May”. “We expect foot reduction by 50 PB in May, another by 25 PB in July and we see space for another -100 PB in 2026” – they stated.

“We expect that the CPI dynamics will drop in April to 4.2-4.3 percent yard (under the influence of the effect of the database associated with the reinstatement of VAT on food in April 2024). Another significant decrease in inflation is very likely in July, because another negative base effect will appear (associated with the increase in energy prices in July 2024)” – Santander economists assessed.

They emphasized that they were expecting a moderate increase in food prices in the coming months. “In April, in annual dynamics, a negative base effect will be revealed to the restoration of VAT to food in April 2024, in our opinion, the annual increase in food prices will decrease to 3.0 percent yard. At the end of the year from 6.7 percent of the currently recorded,” – they said. (PAP)

FOS/ MMU/