The Ukrainians do not see the benefits of a armistice in the Black Sea: “Why should we make concessions?”

Kiev and Moscow engaged last month compared to a cessation of fire in the Black Sea in separate US discussions, but the military and commercial achievements of Ukraine have caused many Ukrainians in Odessa to ask: Does Ukraine really have any benefit from such an armistice? reports New York Times.

Ukrainian military craft patrols in the Black Sea Profimedia photo

Despite the commitment regarding a ceasefire agreement on the part of both countries in conflict, negotiations regarding the moment and implementation in the Black Sea continue.

The Ukrainian Marina officers and the Odessa business owners used this time to weigh the pros and cons. On the one hand, a cessation of fire could shelter the ports of Russian attacks with drones and rockets. On the other hand, that could mean giving up the strategic advantage of Ukraine at sea, perhaps the only area of ​​the battlefield in which it has a certain advantage.

“I do not want a cessation of fire,” said Tariel Khajishvili, chief Novik LLC, a Ukrainian shipping agent operating in Odessa. “The only part that wants a cessation of fire is Russia, because it no longer controls the Black Sea. ”

Ukrainian skepticism has accentuated after Moscow has listed its conditions for an armistice: lifting Western economic sanctions, as well as returning to a previous agreement supported by the UN, which allowed Russia to control the commercial ships leaving the Ukrainian ports to ensure that they are not armed – two requests that are from Kiev.

“Why should we make concessions now? We actually closed the Black Sea”told reporters Pavlo Palisa, a senior military counselor of Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski, last week, emphasizing the success of Kiev in the Russian ships from key seafronts.

It is uncertain if the cessation of fire in the Black Sea will ever enter into force. Ukrainian military officials have noticed that Russia has refrained from attacking Ukrainian ports since the US discussions, thus aligning with one of Kiev's main requests, but they also warn that it is premature to appoint an armistice.

Ukrainians drove the Russians from the Black Sea

Shortly after Russia launched its invasion widely three years ago, its war vessels approached 24 km from the Coast of Ukraine, close enough to open fire on it.

Captain Mihailo, a 27-year-old officer who makes patrols in the port, remembered a bombing that “destroyed a recognition station ” at the southern periphery of Odessa. Then the inhabitants filled sand bags to strengthen defensive positions, preparing for an assault.

However, Russia has never been able to enter Odessa. But the Russian Marina has long controlled the Black Sea to block the Ukrainian ports, suffocating the country's economy and threatening global food, Ukraine being an important cereal exporter.

An agreement intermediated by the UN in July 2022 reopened a maritime transport corridor for Ukrainian exports, but only on the basis of an agreement that allowed Russia to inspect all commercial ships. Kiev said that Moscow deliberately slowed inspections to suffocate trade. After a year, only two dozen ships crossed the monthly corridor.

Russia withdrew from that agreement in July 2023, complaining about the same economic sanctions that they are now trying to cancel and threaten all commercial vessels to and from Ukraine.

To make exports possible again, Ukraine has launched a campaign to reject the Russian fleet from the Black Sea, using naval drones and rockets to destroy or damage more than a quarter of Russia's major war vessels, according to British intelligence services. The attacks forced Russia's fleet to retreat to the east of the sea, away from the Ukrainian shores, allowing Ukraine to provide a new maritime transport corridor that passes by its coast before entering the territorial waters of NATO member states.

The Ukrainian navy patrols the Black Sea

Captain Mihailo said that his patrol boat – an Island class ship donated by the United States in 2021 – accompanies commercial ships that browse off Ukrainian shores, “Offering safety towards me, Russia's air attacks.”

More ships now travel through the new corridor than during the agreement supported by the UN. The exports of food in the Black Sea also approach the levels before the war. Last year, Ukraine delivered 42 million tonnes of cereals and oil seeds, about 80% of its volume before the war, according to data compiled by the Ukrainian investment company Dragon Capital.

In this context, experts see few benefits for Ukraine in a ceasefire at the Black Sea.

The return to the agreement supported by the UN, as Russia requested, “It could reverse the entire success of the Ukrainian corridor secured by the Ukrainian army, especially if the inspections of ships are reintroduced ”said Natalia Spigoțka, senior analyst at Dragon Capital. “I do not see why Ukraine should accept ” This request, she added. “It doesn't make sense.”

Everything that could win Ukraine from a cessation of fire would be to stop Russian attacks on its ports, say experts. These attacks damaged several ships and destroyed numerous containers and grain silos. At the height of the attacks, in the second half of 2023, the export capacity of the ports in Odessa decreased by up to 20 percent, according to Iurii Vaskov, the former deputy minister of Ukraine's infrastructure.

Captain Dmitro Pletenciuk, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Navy, said “For Ukraine, a cessation of fire in the Black Sea means primarily to stop attacks on port infrastructure, so that our cereal corridor can operate without interruptions. “

“There is nothing else that Russia could offer us in this agreement,” he said during an interview in Odessa.

This offer, however, was missing from the statements of the White House announcing the ceasefire to the Black Sea last month.

Andrii Klimenko, the head of the Institute of Strategic Strategic Studies of the Black Sea, said that the two parties never establish a maritime armistice, given their contradictory requirements. He suspects that Russia wants to use the armistice to bring some of its ships in the central Black Sea, which Kiev has already warned that it will trigger the counterattacks.

On Captain Mihailo's boat, a cessation of fire seems as distant as always. The boxes of machine -gun cartridges are ready to be used on the deck. On Tuesday evening, the crew emptied several of them, pulling in the Russian drones that were heading for Odessa and its outskirts.

“Unfortunately, I could not bring them down,” he said, though none seemed to hit the ports that night, according to the Ukrainian authorities.

“For me, nothing changes. The fight continues as usual”he added.