publication
2025-04-08 22:05
It was supposed to be a day of reflection on New York stock exchanges. And initially it actually appeared. Then, however, the market devastated the news that the US administration would impose a 104 % duties on all goods from China. This means the escalation of the trade war.
The S & P500 index ended Tuesday at 4982.77 points, which meant a regression by 1.57% and the fourth inheritance sessions in a row. Nasdaq Composite lowered by 2.15%, descending to level 15 267.91 points. Dow Jones flew down by 0.84%, descending to a height of 37 645.59 points.
However, the beginning of the day did not announce such a bad ending. The market was heavily sold out and panicked after three sessions of powerful declines, and the end of Monday trade revealed the desire to relax. It was obvious how investors grabbed even unverified (and as it turned out later: false or distorted) messages to just move to buy discounted shares.
The more that on the fronts of the United States trade war against the rest of the world, it was possible to hear calls to hesitation and truce. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that about 70 countries turned to the USA to negotiate trade agreements. Proposals for new trade agreements came from the European Union, Japan or South Korea.
On the wave of these reports, the beginning of Wednesday's trade on Wall Street brought quite a large reflection. When the session in Europe was coming to an end, the S&PC was even 4%, so that the final bell would not only portray such a large increase, but even collapse under the line. Wall Street moods certainly worsened the announcement of the White House that from tomorrow (i.e. from Wednesday, April 9) customs duties imported from China in the amount of absolutely deadly 104%will enter into force.
This means that the prices of goods flowing from Chinese ports in American ports will already be over twice as high. The economic advisers of President Trump can say what they want, but there is no chance that maintaining such customs rates does not translate into prices in American stores. There is also a good chance that The recession in the United States has already begun And it will become a fact regardless of the announced (but even unprominced!) Tax reduction. The closely tracked Fed from Atlanta indicates that in the first quarter of 2025 the gross domestic product of the United States was shrinking at an annualized rate of 2.8% (which means a decrease of about -0.7% KDK).
As a result, we received a situation when in the largest economy in the world we will probably receive a simultaneous decrease in economic activity (manifested by a decrease in GDP) and an increase in the prices of industrial products and food. According to the latest survey of the Reuters agency, as many as 73% of Americans surveyed expect prices due to the import duties of President Trump. The mere expectation of such a development of the situation (even if it is wrong) will lead to new decisions: e.g. pre -purchasing or “inventory”. It is for several months that we have been seeing import statistics to the USA, which increased strongly after the announcements of the introduction of duties.
The values of great technology companies were particularly sold to individual companies. Apple's shares got cheaper by nearly 5%, Tesla by 4.9%, and Amazon by 2.6%. These are not only the leading representatives of “wonderful seven”, but also corporations that do great interests in China or producing their goods there.
It is also worth recalling that on Friday the result season starts on Wall Street. Analysts expect that in the first quarter the profits of companies per S & P500 (i.e. EPS) will be 7% higher than last year. This is a large search down, because at the beginning of January EPS dynamics were expected at 11.7% yard. Banks: JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo and Bny Mellon will show the first reports.
